Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Sunday's AL Game 2 MLB Divisional matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
The Phillies flipped their series win probability from 38.8% to 62.6% with their Game 1 upset. They may have a pitching advantage over the remainder of the series, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola pitching most innings over the final four potential games.
I would need -155 to bet the Phillies to win the series with a one-game lead. The -158 price point at FanDuel is just out of range to back Philadelphia. I may consider adding some Phillies series price to hedge my Braves futures.
The Dodgers lost 20 percent off their series win probability with their blowout loss in Game 1. I still expect Los Angeles to defeat its NL West rivals nearly 47% of the time; bet the Dodgers to stage a comeback at odds of +122 or better, on top of our pre-series ticket at -154.
After losing their first home playoff since 2014, I would need +222 (31.1% implied) or better to back the Orioles to defeat the Rangers from a game down in the Divisional Round. The best available price for Baltimore (+205) aligns with my projected number (+202) but doesn't provide enough of an actionable edge to place a wager.
The Twins saw the most minor decrease in their series win probability with their Game 1 defeat; I still expect Minnesota to win this series 31% of the time and would bet the Twins' series price at +245 or better (listed at +280 at FanDuel).
However, we already have a series ticket on Minnesota (at +140) from before Game 1, and as you'll see below, I also placed straight bets on the Twins in Game 2. Be careful not to over-allocate risk on different Twins positions.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8 -105o / -115u | +102 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Jordan Montgomery vs. Grayson Rodriguez (full projections here)
As discussed on our playoff preview podcast, I have handicapped Grayson Rodriguez as one of the top pitchers in the American League during the second half and view him as the best starting pitcher remaining in the AL playoffs.
Rodriguez struggled during his first stint in the majors; across 10 starts in April and May, he posted a 7.35 ERA alongside a 3.93 xFIP 16.6% K-BB%. He faced the Rangers twice over that span, allowing 11 runs in 8 1/3 innings.
After getting recalled in July, Rodriguez posted a 2.58 ERA, 3.70 xFIP and a 17.1% K-BB% while seeing his pitch modeling metrics drastically improve. Rodriguez posted the highest Pitching+ rating in the American League — and third highest in baseball — in the second half, equating to an expected ERA in the mid-twos.
His performance went up an additional level in September (2.17 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 20.7% K-BB%) with Baltimore fighting for a division title.
Jordan Montgomery provided a steadying hand to a banged-up Rangers rotation over 11 starts (2.79 ERA, 3.83 xFIP). Still, pitching models aren't nearly as high on the lefty (94 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 95 Pitching+ in the second half for Texas), viewing him as a below-average arm and pegging him for an ERA north of four.
Baltimore had better offensive splits against lefties (112 wRC+, 8th) than righties (102 wRC+, 12th) this season, a split that has grown in the second half (117 vs. lefties, 98 vs. righties in September).
Texas had fairly neutral splits on the season but was much more effective against righties (112 wrC+, 8th) than lefties (96 wrC+, 16th) in the second half. As a result, both teams are in their superior split and have comparable baserunning and defensive ratings.
Still, Rodriguez ranks as the much better starting pitcher in my model by nearly an entire run on an ERA projection, and I give the Orioles the bullpen advantage by about one-third of a run on a team ERA projection, too.
After the Felix Bautista injury in late August, the two teams ranked 14th and 15th in xFIP over the remainder of the season. However, Baltimore's relievers had much better stuff (108 Stuff+, 8th), while the Rangers' relievers exhibited superior command (96 Stuff+, 28th).
If you watched Game 1, that fact may seem surprising, with Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman providing highly enigmatic appearances.
I projected the Orioles as a -137 favorite for the first five innings (F5) and -131 for the full game; bet the Baltimore moneylines to -126 (F5) and -121 (full game), respectively, with either wager representing an edge of at least two percent compared to my projected number.
Additionally, I set the total at 7.62 runs and caught Under 8.5 (-122) as an opener. Bet Under 8 to -103, with fall weather knocking the air temperature below 60 degrees during the contest.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8 -112o / -108u | +118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -112o / -108u | -138 |
Pablo Lopez vs. Framber Valdez (full projections here)
I regularly highlighted Pablo Lopez throughout this season. The Twins modified his pitch mix and mechanics, leading to a velocity uptick and a career year in underlying indicators (2.98 xERA, 23.2% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+).
While Lopez's 3.66 ERA ultimately aligns with his career average (3.86), he looked like a Cy Young candidate for large stretches of the season while recording 234 strikeouts, tied for third in baseball.
He seemed to be peaking with a 110 Pitching+ in September, and Lopez also looked confident in his Wild Card Round start against the Blue Jays after getting aggressive with his fastball usage:
Pablo López, 96mph ⛽️
3rd K pic.twitter.com/pcmtj7hL5C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 3, 2023
Framber Valdez has seen both his results and underlying indicators regress this season. Valdez posted a 4.30 xERA and a 3.39 xFI,- a full run and half run higher, respectively, than his 2022 marks (3.31 xERA, 2.99 xFIP). And his pitch modeling metrics (111 Stuff+ in 2022, 106 in 2023) are also moving in the wrong direction.
As a result, I give Minnesota the starting pitching advantage in Sunday's contest. Additionally, I give the Twins the better bullpen, too. They had better results in the second half and over the season's final month (3rd vs. 14th in xFIP). However, Houston's bullpen led the majors in Stuff+ over both samples.
The notable stat for Game 2 is Minnesota's offensive splits. The Twins posted a 111 wRC+ (5th) vs. righties this season, compared to a league-average 100 wRC+ (15th) mark vs. lefties. However, Minnesota had the fourth-best offense against lefties in the second half (125 wRC+) and in September (147 wRC+), making me much less concerned about their season-long split.
However, Houston posted an MLB-best 132 wRC+ against righties in September, and a fully healthy Astros lineup is as good as any in baseball.
I project Lopez and the Twins as slight F5 favorites and full-game underdogs for Sunday's contest. Bet the Twins to +103 for the first five innings and +109 for the full game.
Additionally, I set the total at 7.75 runs and caught Under 8.5 (-118) as an opener. Bet Under 8.5 to -118 or Under 8 to +100 with the roof closed in Houston.
Sides and Totals for Sunday, October 8
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-115, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -127)
- Baltimore Orioles (-115, Risk 1u) at DraftKings (bet to -121)
- Baltimore Orioles / Texas Rangers, Under 8.5 (-122, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -122 or 8, -103)
- Divisional Series Price: Los Angeles Dodgers (+138, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +122)
- Houston Astros / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (+123, 1u) at Parx (bet to +103)
- Minnesota Twins (+125, 1u) at WynnBet (bet to +109)
Prop Bets for Sunday, October 8
- TBD
