Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Saturday's Game 1 MLB Divisional matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
As I stated before the Wild Card Round, I gave the Braves and Dodgers an equal chance of making the NLCS because the Dodgers had the easier draw, with the Phillies — who eliminated the Braves in four games in the 2022 Divisional Series — lurking in their bracket.
Since the Marlins didn't pull the upset, the Dodgers now have the easier path and can hope the Phillies pull the upset again, making Los Angeles the NL favorites heading into the NLCS.
I don't see any value in the Braves-Phillies series from a futures perspective — I would need something closer to +175 to back the Phillies — but if you have tailed me throughout the year, you should have good NL pennant numbers on both clubs.
Some series props I considered include Phillies +1.5 Games (projected -150) and Over 4.5 total Games (projected +170); however, the best available prices (-155 and +165, respectively) fall short of my price targets.
One book initially hung Dodgers -154 (60.6% implied) for their divisional series price against the Diamondbacks, which I entered in the Action Network App as soon as possible. The line quickly moved toward my projected price, and I would still bet the Dodgers at -195 or better, but the market has seemingly moved out of range.
I projected the Dodgers' sweep price (-2.5 games) at +426 and their -1.5 games spread at +122. The best available prices I spotted were +350 and +120, respectively.
The Orioles-Rangers series initially opened as a coinflip but has seen Baltimore move towards -120 and Texas toward even money, aligning with my projected price. I expect this series to reach a winner-take-all game five about 37% of the time (+170 implied odds), but the best available odds I found were +155. I don't show any value in this series, but we'll root for our juicy Orioles futures.
We are backing the Minnesota Twins to upset the Houston Astros, who have made the ALCS every year since 2017. I view this series as a coinflip on a neutral field — but give Houston the slight edge for home-field advantage — and I would back the Twins series price at +122 (45% implied) or better.
I also expect the Twins to cover their +1.5 games spread 69% of the time (-222 implied odds), and you can find a substantial edge at -170 (63% implied) at DraftKings. For comparison's sake, Caesars has -180, and FanDuel -220 for the same prop.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -112o / -108u | +126 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -112o / -108u | -148 |
Andrew Heaney vs. Kyle Bradish (full projections here)
Baltimore and Texas split their season series three games apiece and figure to play an emotional ALDS, with both teams reaching the postseason for the first time since 2016. The Orioles haven't had a home playoff game at Camden Yards since 2014, and their fans should provide a raucous atmosphere on Saturday afternoon.
Both teams have concerns at the back-ends of their pitching staffs, but Baltimore should have the pitching advantage for Game 1 with Kyle Bradish (3.79 xERA, 3.53 xFIP, 105 Pitching+) facing Andrew Heaney (4.48 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, 100 Pitching+).
Heaney signed a two-year, $25m deal with Texas this offseason following a career year with the Dodgers (3.39 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 29.4% K-BB% in 2022), but saw all of his underlying indicators (14.2% K-BB%) regress towards his career averages (4.91 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%).
Texas limited Heaney's workload down the stretch, giving him just 19 2/3 innings across eight appearances in September, and he's only completed five innings once since early August.
Bradish peaked in September, posting a 131 Stuff+ — the third highest mark among starting pitchers — and a 107 Pitching+ rating, tied for 20th among the same group of 156 qualified starters. Bradish ranked 23rd in K-BB% (20.9%) and 15th in xFIP (3.21) over the second half of the season among 212 qualified starters.
I also give the Orioles the bullpen advantage by about one-third of a run in terms of a team ERA projection.
After the Felix Bautista injury in late August, the two teams ranked 14th and 15th in xFIP over the remainder of the season. However, Baltimore's relievers had much better stuff (108 Stuff+, 8th), while the Rangers' relievers exhibited superior command (96 Sutff+, 28th), and I'll always defer to stuff in terms of bullpen upside.
I'm slightly surprised to see the Rangers throw a lefty in Game 1; Baltimore had better offensive splits against lefties (112 wRC+, 8th) than righties (102 wRC+, 12th) this season; a split that has grown in the second half (117 vs. lefties, 98 vs. righties in September).
Texas had fairly neutral splits on the season but was much more effective against righties (112 wrC+, 8th) than lefties (96 wrC+, 16th) in the second half. As a result, both teams are in their superior split and have comparable baserunning and defensive ratings.
As of writing, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total. I would consider betting the Rangers at +140 or the Under 8 at -111 or better.
Regarding props, bet Heaney to record Under 13.5 outs (-110 at DraftKings). Bruce Bochy wasn't aggressive with his bullpen usage in the Wild Card Round, and all of Heaney's short September outings came out of the bullpen — in 11 second-half starts, he averaged 4.37 innings per start.
Still, on top of the possibility that the Orioles offense knocks him out of the game, Heaney may piggyback the outing ahead of Dane Dunning, who many Rangers fans presumed would start in Game 1.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +132 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -156 |
Bailey Ober vs. Justin Verlander (full projections here)
The Twins will turn to Bailey Ober (3.61 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 101 Pitching+) instead of Joe Ryan (3.51 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, 105 Pitching+) in Game 1 in Houston, although they can be as aggressive as they want with their bullpen usage after a pair of off days.
Ryan and Ober carry flyball rates near 50% and are susceptible to the long ball throughout their young careers. Ryan held superior pitch modeling metrics down the stretch, so it is a bit of a curious choice, and it did decrease Minnesota's Game 1 chances to a small degree.
Still, Ober is tall and throws from an awkward arm slot, and he has outperformed his underlying indicators (3.63 ERA, 4.14 xFIP) through 292 MLB innings; perhaps the Twins view him as the more effective pitcher.
I have been down on Justin Verlander (3.66 xERA, 4.56 xFIP, 105 Pitching+) this season. His velocity is down nearly an entire tick, and his strikeout minus walk rate has declined by 8.6%, barely sitting above league average (14.1%) at 14.8%.
Verlander's numbers — and pitch modeling metrics — improved after moving back to Houston (17.3% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+) but are still a tier below his 2022 Cy Young level (23.4% K-BB%, 116 Stuff+), and I only project him about a half run better than Ober (3.6 vs. 4.1 model-weighted ERA).
However, Minnesota may have the pitching advantage in the late innings; I project the Twins' relief group as slightly better (by about two-tenths of a run on an ERA projection), and they had better results both in the second half and over the final month of the season (3rd vs. 14th in xFIP). However, Houston's bullpen led the majors in Stuff+ over both samples.
Houston had a rare off-year defensively, finishing 17th in Defensive Runs Saved (+15) compared to eighth for Minnesota (+33).
Season-long offensive splits prefer the Twins' offense (111 to 107 wRC+) when both teams face a right-handed starter. The two teams tied for third in the second half (123 wRC+), but Houston overtook the league in September (132 wRC+ vs. 122 for Minnesota).
I give Houston a slight offensive advantage (125 vs. 122 wRC+) against righties, but it is negligible. However, in this series, they only have two lefties — Framber Valdez and Bennett Sousa — to force Minnesota into its lesser split.
I projected Houston as -127 favorites at home in Game 1; bet the Twins at +138 or better. I would have set the line at -122 if Joe Ryan were starting for the Twins.
I set the total at 7.77 runs and would bet Over 7.5 at plus money.
In the prop market, bet Ober to record Under 4.5 Strikeouts up to -110; I projected Ober for exactly four Ks. Houston has the lowest strikeout rate against righties in baseball during the second half (19%) and the second-lowest (18.2%) behind the Dodgers since the start of September.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +176 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -210 |
Ranger Suárez vs. Spencer Strider (full projections here)
The Phillies will turn to Ranger Suárez (4.36 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, 97 Pitching+) in Game 1 against Spencer Strider (3.02 xERA, 2.93 xFIP, 112 Pitching+), who rated as well as any pitcher this season.
After a pair of off days, and with another off-day scheduled on Sunday, the Phillies will likely be highly aggressive with the bullpen usage behind Suárez in Game 1, particularly with their aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola lined up for Games 2 and 3.
As a result, I wouldn't expect Suárez to last more than a couple of times through the opposing batting order at most, unless the Phillies have a substantial lead and he is cruising.
The Phillies similarly deployed Suárez in their NLDS Game 1 victory in Atlanta last season, using six relievers to record 17 outs after Suárez permitted one run over the first 3 1/3 innings; he didn't see the top of the lineup a third time.
As a result, Suárez recording Under 13.5 Outs (to -130) is an ideal prop play; Rob Thomson has been aggressive with his playoff bullpen usage in games not started by Nola or Wheeler. And the Braves had the best offense in baseball (131 wRC+) against left-handed pitching this season.
Strider finished first among qualified pitchers by both xFIP and Pitching+ and ranked second behind Pablo López in xERA, but underachieved with a 3.86 ERA, about an entire run higher than either his 2023 expected marks or rookie year results (2.67 ERA, 2.30 xFIP). From a handicapping perspective, he still ranks as one of the three best-starting pitchers in baseball and is elite on a per-inning basis:
Strider has held the Phillies to a .505 OPS, with a 32% K-BB% across 146 regular season appearances. His lone poor effort in the NLDS last season at Citizens Bank Park came on the heels of an IL stint and nearly a one-month layoff.
Once Strider is removed from Game 1, the bullpens and lineups make this much more competitive.
Atlanta has a slight bullpen edge by my numbers (by about two-tenths of a run on an ERA projection). The Braves ranked fifth in second-half xFIP, compared to 12th for Philadelphia. However, the Phillies had superior pitch modeling metrics (112 vs. 103 Stuff+).
The Braves posted historic offensive numbers this season, including MLB's first team slugging percentage north of .500. Their lineup is the most impactful position group any team has in the 2023 playoffs. I give the Braves a significant advantage even against a clear-cut top-five Phillies offense and would project the Atlanta to score nearly one additional run per game against an average opposing pitching staff.
I projected the Braves as -200 favorites in Game 1 but would set their F5 (first five innings) moneyline at -230 (69.1% implied). Bet Atlanta to win the first half (F5) of this matchup to -210 (67.1%) implied) at a two percent edge compared to my number, even with the Phillies potentially mixing and matching their bullpen during the fourth and fifth innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8 -114o / -106u | +164 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -114o / -106u | -196 |
Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw (full projections here)
I don't think the Dodgers are giving themselves the best chance to win by starting Clayton Kershaw in Game 1.
The Future Hall of Famer has seemingly been hurt since missing six weeks from June through August with a shoulder injury. Before the IL stint, Kershaw posted a 2.55 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 21.4% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+.
After returning, Kershaw has posted a 2.30 ERA, alongside a 4.57 xFIP, 9.5% K-BB%, 83 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+, and he's lost another tick off of his fastball velocity.
While second-half Kershaw has avoided disaster so far, the red flags in his form couldn't be more glaring. Kershaw stranded 100% of baserunners over his final eight starts; all baserunners scored on home runs or were erased by inning-ending double plays.
I would rank a currently injured Kershaw as the Dodgers' fifth or sixth-best starting pitcher behind Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Lance Lynn, Emmett Sheehan and potentially Ryan Yarbrough. With a fully-rested bullpen — and an additional off-day on Sunday — perhaps the Dodgers started Kershaw planning to use him at the front of a bullpen game, and ahead of Pepiot (3.23 xERA) or Sheehan (3.48 xERA) in particular.
Still, Merrill Kelly has been a regression candidate for much of this season (3.29 ERA, 4.10 xERA, 3.84 xFIP, 103 Pitching+), and the Dodgers have the vastly superior bullpen, sitting nearly a full run better on an ERA projection (3.3 vs. 4.2).
As a result, the Dodgers have the pitching advantage in Game 1 — even with Kershaw starting, on top of a top-three offense. Arizona ranked nearly league-average against righties but struggled against lefties, one significant point in Kershaw's favor.
And I doubt Kershaw goes past five innings, given the odd NLDS scheduling. Bet Kershaw to record Under 16.5 outs; I projected that number around 14.6.
I bet the Over 8 (+100) at an early price, but need -104 or better to play the total. Concerning the side, back Arizona at +186 or better compared to my projected line at +170.
Sides and Totals for Saturday, October 7
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -104)
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-185, Risk 1u) at bet365 (bet to -210)
- Divisional Series Price: Los Angeles Dodgers (-154, 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -195)
- Divisional Series Price: Minnesota Twins (+143, 1u) at Caesars (bet to +122)
- Minnesota Twins (+140, 0.75u) at WynnBet (bet to +138)
- Texas Rangers / Baltimore Orioles, Under 8 (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -111)
Prop Bets for Saturday, October 7
- Andrew Heaney, Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-110, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Bailey Ober, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Clayton Kershaw, Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-140, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -150)
- Ranger Suarez, Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-125, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -130)
- Ranger Suarez, Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -130)
