Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on ALCS Game 3 between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers?
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Series Moneyline Corner
In the ALCS, the Astros are closer to the value side of the market at current odds, as high as +400 (20% implied). However, I would want at least +450 (18.2% implied) to sprinkle Houston before Game 3, and I'd probably prefer to bet the Astros to win the series 4-3 or in Game 7 (+600 at Caesars) instead; they should have a pitching advantage in a potential winner-take-all game at home if they can survive that long.
The Phillies re-opened as high as -900 (90% implied) to win the NLCS with a two-game lead. I would need +750 (11.8% implied) to bet Arizona to win four of the final five games, but I didn't see anything better than +600 as of Tuesday night.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Game 3
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | +110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | -130 |
Cristian Javier vs. Max Scherzer (full projections here)
Max Scherzer will return to the Rangers' rotation and make his first start since September 12, as Texas stands two games away from its first World Series appearance since 2011.
The future Hall-of-Famer spent more than a month rehabbing a muscle strain in his pitching shoulder and was reportedly throwing a bullpen in the low 90s during the divisional round (averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball this season).
Scherzer struggled with a neck injury early in the season while allowing 14 runs through his first five starts, but eventually settled in with a 3.46 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, and 22.7% K-BB% the remainder of the way, alongside a 103 Pitching+ figure in Texas.
I would view a healthy Scherzer as a better pitcher than Cristian Javier; however, there's no telling how much the recent injury may impact his effectiveness.
After more than a month on the shelf — without any rehab appearances to build up his workload — I wouldn't expect Scherzer to go beyond 70 to 80 pitches, at most, on Wednesday, and that's assuming he's effective at all and that Bruce Bochy gives him a longer leash.
As a result, Scherzer to record Under 4.5 Strikeouts and Under 12.5 Outs are two of my favorite prop plays. I'd expect a long man — either Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney — to come in behind Scherzer by the fifth inning.
Current Astros hitters own a .830 OPS against Scherzer across 168 plate appearances, with a 13.7% strikeout minus walk rate, well below Scherzer's career mark (22.9%). Michael Brantley (20-for-54, 4 BB, 2K) has done most of the damage, but Yordan Alvarez (4-for-7, 1 HR, 3 BB, 0 K) clearly sees the ball well against Scherzer too.
How good has Yordan Alvarez been? Well… really good.
5 (out of 6) of his home runs so far this Postseason have come on pitches with a Pitching+ above 100. Topped off by a homer last night on a Chapman 170 Pitching+ slider. This is absurd. pic.twitter.com/7sGsEQQfWp
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) October 17, 2023
Conversely, Scherzer has neutralized Jose Altuve (4-for-26, 0 XBH, 0 BB, 6 K), and the first plate appearance on Wednesday may be very telling as to how Scherzer's night might go.
He prefers to spam his fastball and slider against righties (combined usage 81%) but swaps out the slider for an even mixture of his curveball, cutter, and changeup against lefties. Alex Bregman and Chas McCormick excel against fastball/slider mixes, and Alvarez is a nightmare matchup based on his run values against Scherzer's arsenal.
Take a locked-in Alvarez to record Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) and also bet him to walk (+105) in the event that Texas pitches around him entirely.
I'd be careful betting on Brantley's props, however. He may only face Scherzer once or twice at most and may face a left-handed pitcher in every plate appearance thereafter (career 129 wRC+ vs. righties; 91 vs. lefties), whereas Alvarez smokes left-handed pitching (career 170 wRC+ vs. righties, 158 wRC+ vs. lefties).
Javier pitched much better in September (4.04 xFIP, 23.4% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) than he did over the first five months of the season (5.42 xFIP, 12.1% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+). His stuff was electric — although a bit erratic — in the divisional round against the Twins (5 IP, 1 H, 5 BB, 9 K).
Most importantly, Dusty Baker showed that he trusts the righty — who was dominant in the 2022 postseason (12 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 16 K) — to get out of big spots. With a 5-0 lead in the bottom of the fifth inning, Javier walked the bases loaded with one out.
Still, Baker kept him in, and he recorded consecutive strikeouts against Max Kepler and Royce Lewis to close out a scoreless appearance.
Cristian Javier's 2Ks in the 5th to get out of a Jam. pic.twitter.com/flIzFetthE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 10, 2023
As a result, I like Javier to record more than 12.5 outs in Game 3. Houston used one of its long relievers, J.P. France, for 38 pitches in Game 2, and neither team can afford to overextend its bullpen on Wednesday, with it being the first of potentially three games in three days.
Rangers hitters own a .786 OPS against Javier across 138 plate appearances (12.3% K-BB%) and trounced him for eight runs on nine hits at home back in early July.
Even though he is in much different form now than he was then, I also like Javier to record Over 1.5 Walks (-190) on Wednesday; Texas had the lowest chase rate among all teams after Evan Carter arrived in the big leagues, and it has more walks in the playoffs (31) than any other team.
Even at his best, Javier still throws many pitches outside of the strike zone.
Javier throws his fastball or slider nearly 97% of the time combined to righties while mixing in his curveball or changeup closer to 20% of the time against lefties. He also shows drastic splits (career 3.91 xFIP vs. righties, 4.94 vs. lefties).
Corey Seager and, to a lesser degree, the right-handed Mitch Garver stand out as potential targets for prop purposes. I'd consider betting on Seager to walk, but the price tag (+130) isn't nearly as appealing as it was for Game 1 (+180), and he hasn't walked against Javier in 20 career plate appearances.
I set the Rangers as -118 first five innings (F5) favorites and -114 full-game favorites for Game 3, and I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline. Based on current odds, Houston is closer to the value side, but I would need at least +128 to back the Astros in the first half (F5) and +124 to bet them to win the game.
I set the total at 8.73 runs, assuming the roof will be closed again for Game 3. I bet Under 9.5 at open and would play the Under down to 9 (+100). However, you might find a better number after a less-than-100% Scherzer exits the game.
Look for a Live Under 11.5 or 11 as Texas turns to its bullpen.
Sides and Totals for Wednesday, October 18
- Houston Astros / Texas Rangers, Under 9.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120 or 9, +100)
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Prop Bets for Wednesday, October 18
- Cristian Javier, Over 12.5 Outs (-115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -130)
- Cristian Javier, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Cristian Javier, Over 1.5 Walks (-190, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -200)
- Max Scherzer, Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-110, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Max Scherzer, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)
- Max Scherzer, Under 12.5 Outs Recorded (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 1.5 Total Baes (+125, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +115)
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
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