Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Monday's two LCS matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
The Rangers increased their AL pennant chances by more than 20% with a Game 1 upset, their sixth consecutive playoff victory (five on the road). Texas reopened as a -175 to -180 favorite, with the Astros around +150 to +155 before Game 2.
I would want -156 (60.9% implied) or better to back Texas on the series moneyline with a one-game lead. Conversely, I would need +185 (35.1% implied) or better to bet the Astros to win four of the final six games in this series. As a result, I don't expect to have a bet on either side of the ALCS series line before Game 2.
The Phillies opened as low as -148 (59.7% implied) to win the NLCS against the Diamondbacks but surpassed my -173 projection by Saturday night and are sitting between -175 to -190 around the market as of writing.
I wouldn't bet Phillies to repeat as NL champions above -160 before Game 1. Instead, bet the Phillies to win the World Series to +215; my fair line is closer to +200.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Game 2
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -130 |
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez (full projections here)
I was significantly down on Nathan Eovaldi coming into the 2023 playoffs on the heels of a late July IL stint for forearm tightness, a subsequent velocity decrease and concerning second-half results. Eovaldi posted a 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ before his IL stint (100 being league average), compared to a 97 Stuff+ and 91 Pitching+ figure after returning to the Rangers' rotation for the stretch run.
However, Eovaldi's fastball velocity normalized in his final regular-season start against the Mariners (despite poor results). Eovaldi has carried over that improved velocity to the playoffs while returning to his pre-injury form. The righty has posted the same fastball velocity (95.1 mph) in three consecutive starts, alongside a 32% called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) against Tampa Bay and a 30% mark against Baltimore.
While I have upgraded Eovaldi compared to his September form, I remain concerned about his career numbers against current Astros hitters, who own a .971 OPS against the Houston native across 166 plate appearances (6.8% K-BB% vs.13.3% career for Eovaldi). Jose Altuve (1.078 OPS, 5 HR in 31 plate appearances) is responsible for nearly half of Houston's damage against Eovaldi, and Yordan Alvarez (8-for-11) also has a ridiculous 1.987 OPS against Eovaldi in a short sample.
I'm willing to bet on Alvarez to walk again; of the 20 pitches Alvarez saw on Sunday night, just four were in the strike zone. He swung over a couple of curveballs beneath the zone for a pair of strikeouts, including one on a 3-2 count. While he may swing over the top of Eovaldi's splitter on Monday, the Rangers may continue to pitch around Houston's biggest offensive threat. Hopefully, Yordan will take a more patient approach in Game 2. However, the price also dropped from +155 to -110, going from a lefty to a righty.
Altuve excels against two of Eovaldi's primary weapons against righties — four-seamers (41.2% usage) and cutters (16% usage). Eovaldi prefers his splitter against lefties (31.3% vs. 25% vs. righties), which can help neutralize Houston's best hitters. Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have only had 43 plate appearances end in a splitter this season, but the three stars had a combined -3 run value against the pitch.
Nathan Eovaldi, Wicked 85mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/smYPQfLbgZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 4, 2023
Eovaldi also puts Houston in its lesser offensive split after ranking third against lefties (122 wRC+) and sixth against righties (107 wrC+) this season. Additionally, since the start of the 2021 season, the Astros have the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching (117 wRC+) while ranking fourth against righties (110 wRC+) over the same span.
However, Houston saw those splits reverse down the stretch, ranking as the no. 1 offense against righties (132 wRC+) since September 1, compared to 14th (102 wRC+) against southpaws.
Framber Valdez puts Texas into its lesser split; the Rangers had fairly neutral splits on the season but were much more effective against righties (112 wRC+, 8th) than lefties (96 wRC+, 16th) in the second half, and that split was even more exaggerated in September (121 wRC+, 4th vs. righties; 79 wRC+, 26th vs. lefties).
While Valdez posted another strong campaign (4.33 xERA, 3.39 xFIP), his ground-ball rate dipped to 54% — the lowest mark of his career (62.9% average) — causing a substantial increase in both his hard contact and home run rates (0.86 HR/9 vs. 0.49 in 2022).
Teams that out-homer their opponents are now 15-1 in the 2023 postseason, and Valdez's 2023 home run rate was much closer to Eovaldi's career mark (1.00 HR/9) than we've grown accustomed to.
Valdez has held current Rangers hitters to a .675 OPS across 205 plate appearances, although his command (9.8% K-BB%; 14.5% career) has been spotty. Marcus Semien (.888 OPS) and Nathaniel Lowe (.849) are the only two hitters with decent numbers against him.
Valdez mainly mixes a sinker and curveball to righties while saving his cutter for lefties. Corey Seager excels against that sinker/cutter mix and could be an attractive bet in a left-on-left matchup (138 wRC+ in 2023). Marcus Semien posted strong results against fastballs and curveballs and is a very logical prop target, given his history against Valdez.
I set the Astros as -103 first five innings (F5) favorites and -108 full-game favorites for Game 2, and I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline at open. Based on current odds, Texas is closer to the value side, but I would need at least +112 to back Texas in the first half (F5) and +117 to bet them to take a 2-0 series lead.
I set the total at 8.11 runs, assuming the roof will be closed again for Game 2. You can bet Under 8.5 to -105, with -114 representing my projected break-even price.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 1
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | -162 |
Zac Gallen vs. Zack Wheeler (full projections here)
With his Game 2 effort over Atlanta, Zack Wheeler maintained his record for the lowest WHIP (0.72) in MLB postseason history (minimum 40 IP) ahead of Mariano Rivera (0.76) and Kenley Jansen (0.80).
Among starting pitchers, Wheeler posted an MLB-best 112 Pitching+ rating in the second half. Compared to his regular-season baseline, his velocity has increased for the second consecutive postseason, sitting at a season high of 96.8 mph in his wild-card start against Miami and at 96.3 mph against Atlanta. Wheeler is pitching at an even higher level now than his elite second-half indicators.
Zack Wheeler, K'ing the Side. ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/hBtF8eXji6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 9, 2023
While Zac Gallen (4.19 xERA, 3.49 xFIP, 20.4% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+) received plenty of NL Cy Young attention throughout the year, I still view Wheeler (3.21 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 22% K-BB%, 111 Pitching+ ) at least a tier better than his Game 1 opponent, even though both pitchers limit the long ball with a sub 1.00 HR/9 rate (MLB average 1.23 in 2023).
Current Diamondbacks hitters have posted decent numbers against Wheeler, an .814 OPS across 105 plate appearances, with a 17.2% K-BB%. Tommy Pham excels against both four-seamers and sliders — two offerings Wheeler uses nearly 70% of the time — and he has seen the ball well against Wheeler in a limited sample: 5-for-11, 4 BB, 2 K. Corbin Carroll also excels against fastballs and sliders but is 0-for-5 against Wheeler with a walk and a strikeout. Look to target Pham in prop markets; he's -145 to get a hit.
Wheeler will need to be mindful of opposing baserunners; Arizona's only advantages in this series are base running and defense. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Wheeler has allowed only 13 steals on 23 attempts (56%). Since 2018, J.T. Realmuto has twice as many Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) via stolen base prevention (18) as any other catcher.
Gallen has held current Phillies hitters to a .660 OPS across 77 plate appearances, alongside a 14.3% K-BB%. Gallen prefers a four-seam and curveball mix to righties (combined usage 76.4%) while mixing in his changeup more frequently (20.7%) against lefties. Bryce Harper crushed changeups this season, and he was above average against curveballs, too, but struggled with four-seamers.
Harper to walk (-105) is more appealing than his production props, considering the potential he's pitched around or intentionally walked in his current form. Otherwise, based on Gallen's pitch mix, the Phillies don't have a standout player for prop purposes.
Aside from the starting pitching advantage, Philadelphia has significant advantages in the offensive splits and the projected bullpens.
With Harper rounding into form in the second half (18 HR, .986 OPS) after returning early from injury (3 HR, .786 OPS in the first half), the Phillies ranked ninth vs. righties (109 wRC+), compared to 25th for Arizona (91 wRC+).
The Phillies' bullpen ranked 15th with a 4.25 xFIP in the second half and fifth with a 3.73 xFIP in September, compared to marks of 4.52 (23rd) and 4.23 (17th) for the Diamondbacks' relievers. Pitch modeling metrics also preferred Philadelphia's bullpen both in the second half (112 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+ for Philadelphia; 99/99 for Arizona) and September (111/104 for Philadelphia; 100/100 for Arizona).
I set the Phillies as -181 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -165 favorites for Game 1. Bet the Phillies' F5 moneyline to -165 and their full game moneyline to -156.
With first-pitch temperatures at 56 degrees, I set the total at 7.2 runs and would bet Under 7.5 to -102.
Sides and Totals for Monday, October 16
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-160, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -165)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-144, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -156)
Prop Bets for Monday, October 16
- Bryce Harper, Over 0.5 Walks (-105, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Jose Altuve, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150, 0.1u) at bet365
- Marcus Semien, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Tommy Pham, Over 0.5 Hits (-145, 0.1u) at bet365
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (-105, 0.1u) at DraftKings
