We swept the board on Tuesday, giving us a great start to the last week of the baseball regular season.
Let's keep it going on Wednesday with a few more MLB NRFI picks today and every team in action.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers' performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night's game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Wednesday, September 27
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates YRFI: Both pitchers involved here have slightly below-average "first time through the order" splits, and both lineups are relatively top-heavy. It's not a massive edge but worth playing at low/no juice depending on the book.
Phillies vs Pirates YRFI: +100 at BetMGM, good to -115
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers YRFI: I've had a more or less blanket ban on Angels YRFIs since both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani exited the lineup, but we'll make an exception today. There are two reasons behind that. One, Texas starter Dane Dunning has a higher ERA his first time through the order than overall. Two, Texas is carrying most of the load here as one of baseball's top offenses. Texas needs a few more wins to clinch the division, so they should be playing hard.
Angels vs Rangers YRFI: -104 at FanDuel, good to -120
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros NRFI: These teams are separated by just half a game in the standings, as they battle for the last playoff spot in the AL. While both feature solid lineups, Framber Valdez has a 2.43 ERA his first time through the order, and Bryce Miller a solid 3.17. Expect the runs in this one to come later in the game.
