The MLB playoffs are here, and we'll keep the YRFI/NRFI train rolling through October following a successful regular season that produced just over 15 units of profit.
The limited number of games means we won't have picks every day, but we have picks on three of the four games on Tuesday.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the nights game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Tuesday, October 3
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins YRFI (+110 at BetMGM, use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus code for bonus bet value): I have this game at almost exactly 50% for a run in the first inning, creating some value at plus-money. These teams are better against right-handed pitching (collectively) and Kevin Gausman has a slightly higher ERA his first time through the order compared to overall. I wouldn't take it past the +110 line offered by BetMGM.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-113 at FanDuel, pair with Action's FanDuel Promo Code for bonus bets): We're getting a solid price on the NRFI here thanks to the bad overall numbers from Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 5.70 ERA as a starter. However, the former reliever is much better early in games, with a 2.82 ERA his first time through the order. Additionally, there's two right-handed pitchers taking the mound against two teams with below-average numbers against righties.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-130 at BetMGM): Jesus Luzardo has a sub-2.00 ERA his first time through the order, with Zack Wheeler at 2.27. This line is fairly juicy, but with DraftKings offering a 33% profit boost it's well within the range of value given the pitchers.
