We had another solid day on Wednesday, going 2-1 with our NRFI picks. We have just a couple days left in the MLB regular season, so let's make them count with a few more picks on a smaller Thursday slate. Here are the NRFI bets I'm locking in today.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the nights game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Thursday, September 28
Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (NRFI): Part of this bet is based on the fact that the Twins have nothing to play for at this point, having already locked up the AL Central. Coupled with injuries to some of their best hitters, they're rolling out a considerably worse offense than usual. On the Oakland side, they're facing Sonny Gray — who has a 1.80 ERA his first time through the order.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (YRFI): Toronto is clinging to one of the final wild-card spots, so still has plenty at stake here. The Blue Jays are facing the Yankees' Luke Weaver, who has a terrible 7.6 ERA his first time through the order (and 6.55 overall as a starter.) The regular YRFI at BetMGM is the best line here, but if you can't get that one I'd take the Blue Jays' team-specific line at DraftKings at +170.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (NRFI): Miami's Jesus Luzardo has a 2.02 ERA his first time through the order. The Mets' David Peterson is less promising at 5.45 — but that's still better than his overall ERA, and Miami is implied for fewer than four runs here. We could certainly hedge this one with a Marlins team-specific line — or eat the juice on the Mets' team-specific NRFI, but I'll roll the dice on the full-game play.
