We had another profitable day on Thursday, as the season slowly comes to a conclusion. With plenty of teams resting top hitters — either due to an impending playoff run or to give youngsters a chance — we'll be looking for more NRFIs the last few days of the season. We've got a couple more spots here today.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the nights game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Friday, September 29
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians NRFI: This wholly meaningless battle for second place in the AL Central features Cal Quantrill, with a 3.62 ERA his first time through the order, against Joey Wentz. Wentz has a 5.77 ERA his first time through the order, but that's far better than his 7.15 mark as a starter, and with Cleveland implied for a modest 4.25 runs we can bet on those coming later in the game — especially at plus-money. Bonus points are given due to the Guardians being the rare team that's significantly worse against left-handed pitching.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays NRFI: We've looked to target Aaron Civale starts for NRFIs for a while now, thanks to his 1.68 ERA the first time through the order. With Toronto's Yuseki Kikuchi at a solid 2.70, this is a good matchup on the pitching front with an eight-run total.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies YRFI: I'm playing this one only if all of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are in the top four of Philadelphia's lineup. If they are, the -110 on BetMGM is a great line — but be sure to wait until lineups are official before placing a bet.
