Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total.
But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant.
One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home run props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot, and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +15128 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Orioles vs. Astros, 2:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: Kyle Bradish (RHP)
The sophomore-year leap Kyle Bradish has taken is nothing to glance over. The right-hander has played an integral role in the Orioles’ climb atop the AL East standings and has improved in nearly every metric.
But there’s one area that opponents can taken advantage of the 27-year-old, and it’s his hard-hit rate.
Bradish’s HR/9 has dropped from 1.30 in his rookie season to 0.83 this year. You’d expect his barrels to decline or for him to limit hard contact. Maybe he would even have a huge jump in ground balls.
None of that turned out to be the case. His ground-ball rate has only jumped 2.5% and his barrels sit right around that 7.5% mark. Despite taking a step forward in command and whiffs, his hard-hit rate has jumped a couple of points.
All this to say that I’m expecting Bradish to see some negative home run regression over his next few starts. His rolling fly-ball and hard-hit graphs have both spiked a bit over the last couple of starts. And now he draws a difficult matchup against a powerful Astros lineup.
He's also nearly a run worse on the road (3.56 ERA) than at home.
That brings me to Yordan Alvarez, who's among the most dominant hitters in baseball. His xSLG is in the top 2% of all hitters, as is his 17.3 barrel%. He has a great eye and is often pitched around. But if attacked, Alvarez has all the power in the world.
Alvarez has been a regular in Triple 7s this season and as indicated in the graph above, is seeing a huge jump in both isolated power and hard-hit rate in September.
I don’t have to add much when discussing Alvarez. He’s that good.
Over the last 15 days, Alvarez has five home runs and over a 50% extra-base hit rate. This has been his best month since May and now that he’s fully healthy, I’m expecting Alvarez to continue to roll as the Astros grind out a tight AL West race.
He's +425 to homer at bet365.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
Angels vs. Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: Reid Detmers (LHP)
After missing his start a couple of days ago with an illness, Reid Detmers is slated to take the mound on Wednesday against the Rays.
I was pretty high on the southpaw entering the season, especially after a strong 2022.
But Detmers, despite shoring up on his barrel rate, has taken a step back across the board.
Detmers’ hard-hit rate has jumped four percent from last season and opponents have found more success (.254 xBA vs. 243) at the plate than a season ago.
While his strikeouts have increased, his inability to keep the ball on the ground has become a huge issue.
Detmers ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in ground-ball rate. So, with the increase in hard hits in play paired with those hits often coming in the air or on a line, we’ve seen the lefty struggle against strong lineups.
Early in the season, Detmers was limiting home runs. He gave up just three total between May and June before being crushed by the Dodgers — three home runs in 3 1/3 innings — en route to a July in which he posted a 6.12 ERA.
August was another downturn, with his ERA jumping to 7.94. And while he’s posted two solid outings in September, I’m expecting the Rays' lineup to get to the southpaw, who's struggled on the road (5.40 ERA).
Randy Arozarena has had a quiet 2023 — hitting just 23 home runs with a .258 average — but the 28-year-old is starting to heat up as the regular season comes to an end.
Over the last seven days, Arozarena has a pair of home runs and an extra-base hit rate of 50%.
The rolling graph of his ISO and hard-hit rate is eye-popping. Arozarena is finding his groove as Tampa tries to crawl its way back atop the AL East. The Rays will need the slugger to keep it going if they want to make a postseason run.
While he isn’t posting eye-popping numbers, Arozarena has a 12.4 barrel% — his highest since 2020 — and a hard-hit rate (47.9%) that has jumped seven percent from last season. He's striking out less, walking more and putting in great at-bats.
He's +450 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tigers vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: Reese Olson (RHP)
I’ve been waiting to buy the dip on Mookie Betts, and I think now is the perfect time.
If it weren’t for the unicorn year that Ronald Acuna Jr. is putting up, Betts would be the National League MVP. He’s hitting above .300 and sits just one home run shy of 40. Betts is split-proof and ranks inside the top 2% of all hitters in xSLG, sweet-spot% and chase rate.
Betts has really ascended to a whole other level. His numbers are very similar to that 2018 MVP year in Boston, sporting a similar barrel rate (13.1%) and a hard-hit rate that has jumped 4% from 2022. For reference, he had 35 home runs last season.
After a red-hot August in which Betts hit 11 home runs, he's cooled down a bit. Atop the Dodgers' lineup, Betts is hitting just .245 in September with just two extra-base hits.
Given his matchup on Wednesday and jump in fly-ball rate recently, I think this is a good time to scoop some Betts stock.
Reese Olson takes the mound for Detroit and while I’m high on him — as is my colleague Anthony Dabbundo — there are some concerns with his advanced metrics that leave him vulnerable.
For starters, his barrel rate sits at 10.9%, and despite a dominant September (19 2/3 innings of three-run ball), he’s still being hit hard.
Despite being a low-zone pitcher — slider and sinker combo, among others — Olson is not an above-average ground-ball pitcher.
So, Olson gives up hard hits, oftentimes barrels and has struggled to generate balls on the ground? Oh, and when he does struggle, it’s often a home run that proves disastrous. He's given up a home run in each of his last two starts.
And if he's unable to pitch deep into the ball game, the Tigers' bullpen — aside from a couple of backend arms — is below average.
Betts should have no issues finding success Wednesday night and is more than live to take advantage of Olson’s double-digit barrel rate.
He's +500 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 20
- Yordan Alvarez (+425)
- Randy Arozarena (+450)
- Mookie Betts (+500)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,512.80.
