Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +14306 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Guardians vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Cal Quantrill (RHP)
In another meaningless game with no playoff implications, Cal Quantrill takes the mound in Miguel Cabrera’s last series before retirement. While I’m not heading toward Miggy here, I do think we see extra effort from the Tigers’ young core to carry him out with a bang.
Kerry Carpenter has quietly turned into one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. In the cleanup spot of that Tigers order, Carpenter’s barrel rate sits right in the double digits and he has a 37.4 sweet-spot%, well above league average. He is a plus hitter in just about every category — he is a bit of a free swinger at times and has a 25 K% — and has great power alongside Spencer Torkelson.
More importantly, he is the Tigers best hitter against right-handed pitching. Carpenter’s 133 wRC+ ranks chief among all Detroit hitters, as is his ISO (.222). It comes as no surprise that he and Torkelson have 18 and 19 home runs against righties, respectively, though Carpenter has the edge.
He has an extra base hit rate of 37% against right-handed pitching and an .861 OPS. While he struggles a little against lefties, he won’t be subbed out if the Guardians opt for bullpen help and put Carpenter in his negative split.
Quantrill is a below-average arm and was a big negative regression candidate last season. Well it’s come in full force with his xERA now sitting at 5.73 and his xBA (.287) ranking among the bottom 5% of pitchers.
Not to mention that Quantrill’s strikeout rate has dropped for the fourth consecutive season. It now sits at a measly 13.1%, while his barrels have jumped to a career-worst 8%.
All this to say I expect him to struggle against the Tigers here, specifically the lefty Carpenter. He has not hit a home run over the last 30 days despite his hard hit rate steadily increasing and now is the perfect time for him to clear the fences.
He is +600 at FanDuel, but be sure to shop around. His line is only available there at this moment in time.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Jordan Lyles (RHP)
It’s hard to handicap motivation in some of these meaningless games, but fading Jordan Lyles against a young Yankees lineup is always a promising look.
Sneaking under the radar of late has been Gleyber Torres, who has seen his hard-hit rate steadily increase over the last couple of months. While his fly balls fluctuate, that won’t be an issue here against Lyles, who ranks among the bottom 10% of pitchers in ground ball rate (33.6%).
Despite the increase in hard hits, his slugging and overall success has been minimal at the plate. I’m expecting that to change thanks to his underlying numbers. Torres has posted a career-high .277 xBA and has seen his strikeout rate drop nearly 8% from last season. He doesn’t chase often and ranks inside the top quarter of all players in sweet-spot%.
Meanwhile, Lyles ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in whiffs and strikeout rate. He has a near double-digit barrel rate allowed, too, and has given up a home run in 22 of 30 starts (73%). How about 2+? In 12 of 30 (40%).
He is +390 at FanDuel.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Rangers vs. Mariners, 10:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Bryan Woo (RHP)
One of the first lines that jumped out to me was Corey Seager’s odds discrepancy over at FanDuel. While he is listed in the mid-200s everywhere, FanDuel currently has him at +320.
Seager has been featured in Triple 7s plenty of times before and for good reason. Just five days ago he crushed a two-run shot off Mariners starter Bryan Woo and now, with playoff implications on the line, I’m expecting another big game from the superstar.
The would-be-MVP if it weren’t for Shohei Ohtani, Seager ranks inside the top 3% of all hitters in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He barrels the ball 15.5% of the time and has 33 home runs in just 116 games.
Seager enters with a hit streak of nine games and is split proof. He’s one of the hardest outs to get in MLB and a huge reason toward Texas’ late run at the American League West title.
Woo takes the mound for Seattle and after back-to-back scoreless outings against the lowly Angels and Athletics, he was tattooed by the Rangers. The righty didn’t make it out of the fourth, giving up six runs. More importantly, he allowed four home runs.
He has played the Rangers twice this season and has given up six runs in each of those outings. While he is above average at limiting barrels and hard hits, he will go through stints of struggling to keep the ball on the ground. In 17 starts this season, Woo has given up 2+ home runs in four games.
I love Seager especially at the +320 odds he’s currently listed at. Off a walk-off loss last night, I’m expecting the Rangers to bounce back in Woo’s second-straight start against his division rivals. Seager will be chief among them in the pecking order.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, September 29
- Kerry Carpenter (+600)
- Gleyber Torres (+390)
- Corey Seager (+320)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,430.60.
