Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +6284 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Nationals, 7:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
It’s been a long time since we’ve worked in a Patrick Corbin fade, but against a dominant Braves lineup, no time is better than the present to hop back aboard.
While Corbin has improved from last season, he remains a below-average arm. The 34-year-old ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in xBA and has seen his strikeout rate drop for the fifth consecutive season.
He no longer generates chases or swings and misses, and his hard-hit rate remains in the mid 40s. His barrel rate sits around 9%, and while he enters without allowing a home run in two starts, they often come in bunches.
Since June, in games where Corbin has given up a home run, 70% of those games have seen 2+ leave the park.
That brings me to Austin Riley, who has been crushing the ball of late. Over the last 15 days, he has a pair of home runs and is hitting .333, with an OPS just shy of 1.000. I took Matt Olson to hit a HR yesterday, so I watched Riley’s at-bats.
He looks locked in and is sandwiched perfectly between the one-two punch of Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies and the home runs leader Matt Olson on the back end. Since Sept. 12, Riley has had a multi-hit game in 5-of-8 games (62.5%).
In a matchup against a lefty, I expect that success to continue. In such a stacked lineup, it’s easy to lose sight of Riley’s success against lefties. But he has the second-most HRs on the team against southpaws and ranks third in ISO (.270) ahead of the likes of Olson and Acuna.
In fact, nearly 30% of all his hits against lefties have left the park. He has a ton of power, and we could very well see him clip off a couple against Corbin, against whom he has had great success in the past.
While I don’t factor in prior history much, Riley is hitting .286 with a 1.001 OPS against Corbin. He has a pair of home runs and three doubles.
Riley is +330 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Mariners vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Bryce Miller (RHP)
Yes, I understand these are super low odds. But this is a great matchup for Corey Seager and a buy-low opportunity with just two hits in his last 22 at-bats.
I’ve written about Seager in the past, so I’ll be quick. The lefty is posting a career-best barrel rate (16.2%) and ranks in the top 4% of all hitters in xBA, xSLG, barrels and hard-hit rate. He is a consistent threat in the two hole and has 31 home runs in just 109 games.
His OPS is above 1.000 for the first time in his career, and nearly 25% of all his hits against righties have left the park. In general, 53.5% of all his hits have gone for extra bases.
Bryce Miller takes the hill for Seattle, and while his command has been great, I have some concerns about the righty. For starters, his ground ball rate is barely above 30% — bottom 10% of all pitchers — and he’s been barreled often.
Despite the high barrels and high fly ball rate, Miller has given up just one home run over his last eight starts. He has been tagged for 3+ runs in three of those, and with an xERA nearly a run higher than actual, I’m expecting a down start from the righty.
Miller largely relies on his fastball (60%) and slider (19%), with the former being his No. 1 whiff pitch. What does Seager do at an extremely high rate? Crush fastballs — a 67% hard hit rate and .715 xSLG — and sliders.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Giants vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Sean Manaea (LHP)
Back to the well for a third straight day I go.
I’m going to continue to back Mookie Betts at these longer prices, especially with the at-bats I have seen from him the last couple days. After a lull post-Braves series, Betts is hitting the ball harder — the fly balls just have come up short.
He hit a double in the gap on Wednesday night to clear his total bases prop, and while he went hitless the following day, the at-bats were strong enough to back him against the Giants once again here. It mostly stems from the pitching matchup with lefty Sean Manaea taking the hill.
Manaea has really struggled to find his footing this season. He’s mostly worked out of the pen but has posted a career-worst barrel rate (9.2%) as his xSLG remains above .400. He isn’t generating chases and his command has been shaky at times as a long reliever.
Manaea rejoined the rotation a couple weeks ago, and in two starts, he’s thrown 11 innings of four-run ball (1 HR). Over his last six appearances — just 23 2/3 innings — he’s given up five home runs. It’s a high rate, and he should have a long leash on Friday night.
Circling back to Betts, he is by far the best Dodger against left-handed pitching. His wRC+ is a team-best 194 and his ISO sits at .389. Nearly 32% of his hits against southpaws have left the yard and 64% have gone for extra bases altogether.
Those are staggering numbers, and against a below-average arm in Manaea on Friday night, I expect him to do some damage.
Betts is +330 at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, September 22
- Austin Riley (+330)
- Corey Seager (+280)
- Mookie Betts (+330)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $628.40.
