MLB Best Bets, Picks for Wednesday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:08 p.m. | |
| 3:08 p.m. | |
| 3:08 p.m. | |
  | 4:38 p.m. | |
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs. Rays
By D.J. James
Look, the Tampa Bay Rays put together an awful performance in Tuesday’s game, but they have a chance to put up some offense on Wednesday.
Nathan Eovaldi will start for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. He has been battling a forearm strain this season, and since returning from the injured list, he has not seen much success. He has a 3.63 ERA and 3.99 xERA on the season, but in September (after the injury), he held a 9.30 ERA over 20 1/3 innings while allowing seven homers. He allowed eight over 19 starts beforehand.
The Rays slumped a bit in September when a right-hander started against them, but they had a 119 wRC+ and .779 OPS since August 1 in the regular season. They also had seven active players above a .330 xwOBA. This team could hit when it mattered, so they should be able to piece together solid plate appearances against an ailing starting pitcher.
Adding onto that, the Rangers sported a 4.32 xFIP with a 9.2% walk rate out of the bullpen. The Rays are not a particularly patient team, but they should be able to push across runs late in the game.
In addition, if Eovaldi struggles early, he will not be able to have much of an impact in this matchup. This will put the weaker middle relief staff into the mix for the Rangers and allow Tampa Bay opportunities to score.
Take the Rays team total over to 5 (-125). Expect an offensive performance for them.
Pick: Rays Team Total Over 4 (-125)
| | | | |
Rangers vs. Rays
By Tony Sartori
The Rangers take their 1-0 series lead back into Tampa on Wednesday, and I think we get another low-scoring affair similar to Game 1.
Yeah, both lineups are extremely strong and that is why we are catching this total at eight. However, both starting pitchers should be up to the task.
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for Texas and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Earning an All-Star nod, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also strong, ranking in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Whiff%, BB% and Barrel%. Meanwhile, right-hander Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Rays.
He also had a career year, going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Eflin's analytics are even stronger than Eovaldi's, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Chase%, K%, BB% and Hard-Hit%.
There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in each of the past four meetings between these two clubs.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
| | | | |
Rangers vs. Rays
Ever since Nathan Eovaldi returned from his forearm injury, he's been awful. In his six starts since returning, he's given up a whopping 21 earned runs, opposing hitters have a .313 average against him and his BB/9 rate is up at 5.75.
Eovaldi also has pretty drastic splits when facing righties versus lefties. He's fantastic against lefties, but against righties he has allowed a .331 wOBA. The Rays are the most analytical team in baseball, so they know this, which means you may very well see nine right-handed bats in the lineup today from a team that is top five in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Zach Eflin, on the other hand, has been pitching outstanding down the stretch. In the month of September, Eflin has a 2.69 xFIP, 11.67 K/9 rate and only a 1.33 BB/9 rate. Eflin also has a 105 Pitching+ rating over that time frame, which is 15th best in baseball.
The Rangers hit everything over the first half of the season, but over the second half they had a 110 wRC+, which is a significant drop from before the All-Star break, while Tampa Bay actually had a better wRC+ than the Rangers over that time frame.
I have the Rays projected at -166 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them for the first five innings at -138.
Pick: Rays F5 ML (-138)
| | | | |
Blue Jays vs. Twins
An F5 wager is a bet, more than a full game moneyline or anything else, on a starting pitching edge, and the Twins have one this afternoon in Sonny Gray against Jose Berrios.
I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Berrios coming into the season. He was one of my favorite pitchers to bet against in 2022, and that strategy cost me quite a bit of money early on in 2023.
Berrios rebounded quite nicely, putting up a 3.65 ERA across 189 2/3 innings after looking like a pitcher bound for unemployment the season prior. Still, his expected stats weren't a huge believer in that improvement, as his xERA sat at 4.51 and DRA had him at 4.35.
Regardless of what you believe about Berrios' true talent, he's an inferior pitcher to Gray, who was also probably a bit lucky to find himself with a 2.79 ERA, but whose expected stats (3.66 xERA, 4.01 DRA) still outpace his counterpart on Wednesday.
The Twins also have been mashing right-handed pitching virtually all season, and while they are slightly below average against sliders and changeups, they're a top-6 offense against fastballs, which is Berrios' primary offering.
I prefer to stay away from the bullpens after Tuesday's tight game, but I love getting Gray against Berrios at a reasonable price.
I would bet the Twins F5 ML at -145 or better.
Pick: Twins F5 ML (-139)
Sign up for BetRivers and use Action's BetRivers Promo Code for bonus bets when betting the Twins.
| | | | |
Marlins vs. Phillies
Aaron Nola's season has been mired by inconsistency. He's struggled to pitch deep into games, been poor with runners on base and consistently underperformed his underlying pitch metrics. Nola did end the season on a high note with back-to-back quality outings against the Braves and Pirates following a small tweak in his delivery and an increase in his changeup usage.
The changeup usage will be key in this outing against the Marlins, who feature a bunch of solid left-handed bats. Nola has had his struggles the third time through the order especially, but I'm expecting Nola to be on a considerably shorter leash than normal as the Phillies try to close out this series.
Philadelphia has home-field advantage, a clear offensive edge and a relatively well-rested bullpen following last night's dominant outing from Zack Wheeler. The market has soured a bit on Nola, but I'm closer to the belief that he's found something in the last two starts. With a shorter leash and an elite bullpen behind him, Nola and the Phillies are too short at -150 on Wednesday.
Braxton Garrett's underlying metrics (4.51 xERA and 92 Stuff+) aren't as good as Nola anyway (3.74 xERA, 101 Stuff+).
I'd bet Philadelphia at -160 or better.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| | | | |
