MLB Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Merrill Kelly is the second-best pitcher in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation, but he is due for some negative regression.
He posted a 3.29 ERA this season but his xERA was 4.18. One of his main issues is walks, as his walk rate increased from 7.6% last year to 9.4% this season. The Phillies have far too potent of a lineup for anyone to be issuing them free passes in the playoffs, especially at home.
Bryce Harper is, of course, the name to watch here. From August 1 through the end of the regular season, he had a .427 OBP with 25 walks in 150 plate appearances. In the postseason, you know what he's done with the stick, but he also has a 26.7% walk rate in 30 plate appearances, posting an absurd .567 OBP.
Even when he's not hitting home runs, Harper is getting on base more often than not.
Harper is by far the biggest threat in the Phillies lineup. If Kelly is walking hitters, that's an issue overall, but even if his control is on, he's sure to be careful with Harper, and that may even include an intentional walk in a key spot.
Take Harper to draw a walk at -125 or better.
Pick: Bryce Harper o0.5 Walks (-125)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
I made this matchup closer to a pick 'em (before the adjustment of playing in the absolute electric factory that is Citizens Bank Park). However, even after that adjustment, +143 is just too long to pass up in what is otherwise a relatively equal matchup.
The pitching matchup is likely a wash, with maybe even a slight edge to Merrill Kelly. Coming off the best season of his career, Kelly went 12-8 through 30 regular starts with a 3.29 ERA. He also ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, Chase%, Whiff%, K% and Barrel%.
This success continued into the postseason as Kelly was tremendous in his lone playoff start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, tossing over six innings of shutout ball while allowing only three hits.
Aaron Nola's regular season did not go as well as Kelly's, although he has also been tremendous in these playoffs. With that said, his track record against the D'backs is terrible, posting a 7.67 ERA through five career starts against them.
If Kelly outduels Nola, can Arizona's lineup outlast Philadelphia's? That's the biggest question mark in this series for the Diamondbacks. However, they are averaging 5.5 runs per game this postseason and were able to cross the plate a couple times against a much stronger Zack Wheeler in Game 1.
Ultimately, the hitting may not match up with Philadelphia's, but if Kelly can out-pitch Nola and keep this game close entering the final third, then we could have ourselves a game and that +143 number could prove its worth regardless of whether it hits.
I would bet the Diamondbacks down to +130.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+143)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By Alex Hinton
Castellanos does not have extensive history against Kelly. He is just 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against the veteran right-hander. However, it has not mattered lately who he is facing.
Castellanos has a hit in five of his seven games this postseason. He is hitting .370 and has hit this line in five of those games, and the story of late has been his power surge. Castellanos has hit five home runs in his last three games. He became the second player in MLB history to do so in the postseason, joining Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson.
Castellanos is +550 on DraftKings to leave the yard once again. However, even if that streak ends, he can still hit this line in other ways. He has four multi-hit games this postseason and he also has a double.
Castellanos seems to feed off the raucous atmosphere in Philadelphia. He has homered in 19 home games this year, including his last three. I expect another big game from him tonight.
Pick: Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases (+130)
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