MLB Best Bets Today, October 11
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:07 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 9:07 p.m. | |
| 9:07 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs. Phillies
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By D.J. James
As of late Tuesday night, the Atlanta Braves haven't announced a starting pitcher for Wednesday's Game 3. It will likely either be A.J. Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder. It could be both (in some order).
It doesn't matter.
The Phillies have eight hitters on the active playoff roster with a .320 xwOBA or better, and two others above .310 against righties since August 1.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two players to watch, as they both have crushed righties. Harper is the best hitter in the lineup against right-handers. Since August 1, he has a .476 xwOBA, 92.6 mph Average Exit Velocity, and 10 home runs against right-handed pitching. He also held a 150 wRC+ off of righties on the season with a 20.3% strikeout rate and a 15.7% walk rate.
Against Atlanta Braves right-handed pitching in particular, Harper has a .446 xwOBA and 92.6 mph Average Exit Velocity with four homers over 41 plate appearances.
Take Harper’s total base over to 1.5 to -115.
Pick: Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
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Astros vs. Twins
Joe Ryan is a very interesting case because, coming into the season, he was thought to be the Twins' best starting pitcher, but his stuff has dropped off pretty significantly as the season has gone along.
In the first half of the season his Stuff+ was sitting at 102, which is above league average, but since the All-Star break his Stuff+ is down to 95. He was hampered by a groin strain that briefly put him on the IL in August, which could be a reason why his effectiveness has gone down.
The main problem for Ryan is that the velocity on his fastball is down a full mph from where it was in April. That may not seem like that big of a deal, but when you are someone like Ryan who is throwing this fastball over 56% of the time, it can become a big issue.
Outside of his fastball, he only has two other pitches he throws: a split finger and sweeper. The split finger's Stuff+ rating has dropped from 95 in the first half to 85 in the second half with hitters having over a .400 xwOBA against it.
This is a win or go home game, so everyone in the Twins bullpen is available. Ryan hasn't really been lasting long into his starts down the stretch of the regular season, as he's pitched five innings or less in four of his last nine starts.
Given how well the Astros have been hitting the ball and given how good they are against righties, I don't think manager Rocco Baldelli is going to hesitate at the first sign of trouble and play the matchup game with his bullpen to try and keep their season alive.
So, I think 14.5 outs for Ryan is a tad high and I like the value on the Under at -125.
Pick: Joe Ryan Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
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Astros vs. Twins
My jaw literally dropped to the floor when I saw this number. Yordan Alvarez to record a walk at plus money?!
This was a number I expected toward the -150 range. I was ready to hop on Payoff Pitch and do my best Chris Raybon impression. “Lay the juice. I don’t care if you’re scared. There’s too much value!!”
Not only does Alvarez rank in the 93rd percentile of all hitters with a near-14% walk rate, but he’s also the hottest hitter on the planet right now. Alvarez has homered in three straight games against the Twins and has six extra-base hits in 12 at-bats.
With their backs against the wall, I would expect a similar treatment for Alvarez that the Baltimore Orioles gave Corey Seager in Game 2 of the ALDS. Make anyone else beat them. Seager walked five times.
Alvarez has accounted for six runs scored and has six RBI himself. I would argue that he’s the best hitter in baseball — but that’s for another day. Anytime first base is open and Alvarez is at the plate, I would expect Minnesota to pitch around the slugger. Maybe even an intentional walk.
It’s an elimination game for the Twins and Alvarez is the last guy they should let beat them. I’m expecting a cautious approach from Rocco Baldelli’s staff and back Alvarez to record a walk.
For what it’s worth, dating back to July 31st, Alvarez has walked in 29 of 56 games (51.8%). And now he’s swinging the hottest bat in baseball in Game 4 of the ALDS?
Feed me a walk. I would bet this to -130.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Walks (+115)
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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
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Lance Lynn has been a workhorse pitcher his entire MLB career, but he's likely to be in a very different role on Wednesday night as the Dodgers look to fight off elimination down 2-0 to Arizona. Lynn's pitching profile has dramatically changed since he joined the Dodgers at the deadline.
His zone contact rate — which was one of the best in MLB in Chicago — has risen dramatically. Lynn is allowing a lot more contact since joining the Dodgers as his swinging strike rate dipped from 13.9% in Chicago to 10.9% now. He's traded a bunch of whiffs and hard contact allowed for a more pitch-to-contact profile.
Lynn has been in the zone way less as an attempt to cut down on the homers he's allowed. His hard hit rate allowed with the White Sox was 36.3% and it's dropped to 24.9% since joining the Dodgers.
The Dodgers will pull him if he gets truly smoked, but I can't envision a Dave Roberts pitching plan that doesn't include at least four innings or twice through the lineup (18 hitters) for Lynn on Wednesday night.
Neither Bobby Miller nor Clayton Kershaw could finish the second inning and the elimination situation has driven the line down, but this is still an average Diamondbacks lineup overall.
I wouldn't bet over 12.5, but at 11.5, this line is too high for me.
Pick: Lance Lynn Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-102)
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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
By Tony Sartori
The Diamondbacks go for the sweep at Chase Field on Wednesday, and it will surely help that they are going against right-hander Lance Lynn.
It was an incredibly tough season for Lynn, who posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through 32 starts. His analytics are also poor as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, Chase%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
If you're going to give me a team that has yet to lose in the postseason at plus-money against Lynn on their home diamond in a series-clinching scenario, I'm going to take that bet every single day of the week. We are catching plus money here because right-hander Brandon Pfaadt is taking the mound for Arizona.
Yeah, he stinks too, but he's no worse than Lynn. Pfaadt did struggle against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Round, but that was the 24-year-old's first playoff start and it was on the road. Now he has that under his belt and returns to pitch in front of a home crowd.
He's a boom-or-bust pitcher, but it's worth noting that he allowed zero runs in two of his final regular season starts. With that said, Arizona has pitched and hit better than Los Angeles in this series, and while I don't necessarily trust Pfaadt, I sure don't trust Lynn.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+125)
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