The MLB postseason begins one week from today, and with the season winding down, there's plenty on the line for several teams.
With 16 games on today's slate, our analysts are eyeing four in particular: Nationals vs. Orioles, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Padres vs. Giants and Astros vs. Mariners.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, September 26.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Start Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
  | 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nationals vs. Orioles
By Kevin Rogers
The Beltway Series gets underway tonight in Baltimore as the Orioles and Nationals hook up for a pair of games the next two days. Baltimore swept a two-game set from Washington in April as the Orioles outscored the Nationals 5-0 in the series.
The Orioles have already clinched a playoff berth and hold a 2.5-game edge over the Rays for the top spot in the American League East race. Baltimore is back home following a 4-3 road trip that concluded with a pair of wins at Cleveland.
Kyle Bradish takes the mound for the O’s tonight and he tossed a masterpiece in his last start at Houston by striking out nine in six scoreless innings. However, the Baltimore bullpen allowed two late runs in a 2-1 defeat to the Astros, marking the second straight loss with Bradish on the hill.
Josiah Gray shut down the White Sox in his last outing. The Nationals have picked up seven wins this season as a road underdog of +160 or higher with the right-hander on the mound. Gray held his own against Baltimore earlier this season at home, giving up one run in five innings of a 1-0 defeat.
Washington is going nowhere and Baltimore still has a lot to play for, but there is regional pride here and the Nationals have dropped five straight meetings to the Orioles since last season.
Let’s back Washington in the first five innings at +185 or better.
Pick: Nationals F5 ML (+194)
| | | |
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
By Tony Sartori
It has certainly not been the year the Yankees anticipated, but they can still play spoiler in this contest against Toronto as right-hander Michael King takes the mound for New York.
King was one of the team's best relievers, but with the season already chalked, the Yankees decided to give him a shot in the rotation. That decision was clearly a wise one as he has likely earned a starting spot for next year with how dominant the right-hander has been.
Over his past six starts since moving to the starter role full time, King boasts a 1.27 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggested this success would be possible as he ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.
Right-hander Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays and he has also put together a very respectable season, posting a 12-9 record with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
With that said, King paces him almost across the board both statistically and analytically. So, why is Toronto laying 62 cents on the moneyline? Its hitting is far superior, ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
With that said, King is more than capable of limiting this offense. Over his past 14 appearances against the Blue Jays, he owns a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
The Yankees haven't been playing terribly lately, winning nine of their past 14. Anything north of +125 is worth taking a shot on here as King continues to dominate every team he faces.
Pick: Yankees ML (+142)
| | | |
Padres vs. Giants
By D.J. James
The San Diego Padres likely will not get the miracle they desire to make the playoffs, but they have still been red-hot.
Seth Lugo will go for the Padres in this matchup with the Giants. He has a 3.79 ERA and 4.50 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 90.7 mph and his hard-hit rate is 44.4%. His second half ERA is 4.14 in 74 innings, so this shows some of that expected negative regression.
Kyle Harrison goes for San Francisco and he has the ability to strike out any hitter who steps to the plate. That said, he has a 4.85 ERA against a 4.75 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph and his hard-hit rate is 40.7%. He also has a ground-ball rate of 30.2% in 29 2/3 innings.
The Padres crush lefties and they should do so here. They have a September wRC+ of 191 and an OPS of 1.083 off of southpaws. Their strikeout rate is 17% against an 8% walk rate.
The Giants have a 3.97 xFIP in relief, but they have their sore spots, if a starter exits early, as any team does.
Take the Padres team total over to 5.
Pick: Padrees Team Total Over 4.5 (+106)
| | | |
Astros vs. Mariners
Cristian Javier's 10-game rolling strikeout rate fell as low as 6.3 per nine in late July. He struggled with command, whiffs and homers as his ERA ballooned as high as 4.78.
The Astros were adamant that Javier's struggles were not injury-related but were mechanical. It appears they were correct in their assessment given how Javier has performed in the last few starts. The strikeouts are returning for him now, as his rolling 10-game K rate per nine is back up to 10.0.
The market solidly downgraded Javier because of the middling results this season and now is the time to buy low after his best start of the season when he struck out 11 in five innings against Baltimore last week. The Stuff+ numbers had dropped off, too, and they've slowly bumped back up closer to the heights he reached near the end of 2022.
Javier misses a lot more bats in the zone than his counterpart, George Kirby. I also expect both teams to be extremely aggressive in their bullpen usage given that this is essentially a playoff game for both clubs. Both teams have their top bullpens rested, which leaves the Astros with the significant offensive edge as the main differentiator.
I'd play Houston at +110 or better on Tuesday.
Pick: Astros ML (+110)
| | | |
