We've officially reached the final week of the MLB regular season. While Monday's slate is tiny, there's a lot of playoff implications, particularly in regards to the AL West and AL wild-card race.
Our MLB analysts are on games involving those teams, with two picks on Rangers vs. Angels and one on Astros vs. Mariners.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, September 25th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs. Angels
By Doug Ziefel
Patrick Sandoval is the beneficiary of some serious recency bias heading into this start against the Texas Rangers.
Yes, he did turn in a great outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he struck out seven in five innings of work. However, that outing marked just the fifth time this season he's recorded more than six strikeouts in an outing.
That's right, he has gone under his listed strikeout total in 21 of his 27 starts. That 77.8 percent hit rate gives us implied odds of -335 that he will go under it again tonight.
Add in the fact that he is facing what is arguably the best lineup in the American League, and you have yourself a very strong angle.
To put the nail in the coffin on Sandoval, our Action Labs projections love this under. They have him projected for 5.4 strikeouts tonight. Play to -200.
Pick: Patrick Sandoval Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)
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Rangers vs. Angels
By D.J. James
Both the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers have been up and down at the plate lately. The Angels have a completely decimated lineup and will likely end the season on a huge offensive downturn since Shohei Ohtani hit the injured list. The Rangers, on the other hand, just cannot hit lefties lately.
The Angels will throw Patrick Sandoval, who is probably one of their most reliable arms at the moment. He has a 4.19 ERA and 4.62 xERA, but he has an 87.5 mph average exit velocity allowed, 6.9% barrel rate and 34.8% hard-hit rate. He has a ground-ball rate of 47.6%, but his walk rate is over 10%. He does own a 3.86 ERA in the second half over 56 innings.
The Rangers' Jon Gray has a 5.71 ERA in the second half, which is of concern, but the Angels cannot hit. They have a 79 wRC+ and .670 OPS off of righties in September. Their strikeout rate is almost 30%, so Gray may have a fantastic day on the bump.
The Rangers have not hit lefties well this month. They have a 94 wRC+ and .710 OPS with a 10.2% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate.
Both bullpens have their issues, but given that both teams have cold bats against these types of starting pitchers, the under should be in play. Take it to 8.5 (-125).
Pick: Under 9 (+100)
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Astros vs. Mariners
By Kevin Rogers
Both the Astros and Mariners went through a forgettable weekend in the Lone Star State as each team was swept. Seattle’s three losses to Texas weren’t as bad as Houston dropping all three to lowly Kansas City at home, but both teams will try to save face with an important series starting in the Pacific Northwest.
And it’s a perfect opportunity for each team to send out its ace to get on track as Luis Castillo starts for Seattle and Justin Verlander goes for Houston.
The Mariners are 10-0 in Castillo’s last 10 starts, while posting a 9-0-1 mark in the first five innings in this stretch. Castillo has split a pair of matchups with the Astros this season, but did shut down Houston on the road in early July by allowing one run in seven innings of a 10-1 blowout.
Seattle has won eight of the past nine matchups with Houston, while posting a 7-0-1 mark in the first five innings in the last eight meetings.
Verlander is never a bad bet as an underdog, as evidenced by a road victory at Texas earlier this month in a 12-3 rout of the Rangers. However, the Astros are 1-3 in his last four starts in the first five innings, while giving up at least three runs in each of those losses.
The Astros head into tonight owning a despicable 4-20-4 record in their last 28 series openers in the first five innings. Also, Houston is 1-11-1 on the road in this spot in Game 1s in the last 13 opportunities.
Both teams are desperate for a win tonight but we’ll back Seattle at home in the first five innings at -120 and play it to -130.
Pick: Mariners F5 ML (-120)
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