It is the penultimate day of the MLB regular season, but while the season is winding down, the betting action is not.
Every team is in action once again today, and our analysts have pinpointed value in two games: Padres vs. White Sox and Dodgers vs. Giants.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Saturday, September 30th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. White Sox
By D.J. James
Michael Wacha has defied some of his expected numbers and is slated to go up against the Chicago White Sox — the weakest-hitting team against right-handed pitching this month — on Saturday. Additionally, the White Sox are missing Luis Robert, which eliminates their most significant threat both in the lineup and on defense.
Wacha has a 3.39 ERA against a 4.42 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 88.2 mph and his barrel rate is 7.7%. His hard-hit rate is 35.5% and he's walking batters at an 8% clip. He's also striking out 22.2% of opposing hitters. That said, his ground-ball rate is only 36.3%, but the White Sox maintain the second-highest ground-ball rate in baseball.
Mike Clevinger will take the mound for Chicago and he's arguably been the White Sox's most effective arm in the second half. On the season, Clevinger has a 3.40 ERA against a 3.99 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 87.9 mph, his barrel rate is 7.4% and his hard-hit rate is 35.3%. He's also walking 7.1% of batters and striking out 20.2% of them. However, his second-half ERA is 2.96 over 67 innings, an indicator of how he should perform Saturday.
Offensively, the Padres have a 108 wRC+ this month off of righties, but the Sox wRC+ is just 73.
In relief, the Sox have been underwhelming, while the Padres are about average. However, each team should enough bullpen options if the starters go as deep as expected.
Take the under to 8 (-125). This could very well look like a 6-1 Padres win.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
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Dodgers vs. Giants
Betting on regular season baseball this late in the season is rough. Some teams are mailing it in, some are getting their rotations set for October, and a select few are really ramping up with their playoff fates on the line.
The Dodgers are secured in their playoff positioning, while the Giants are looking toward the offseason and playing with an interim manager. One constant we can count on, though, is Clayton Kershaw and the Giants' inability to hit left-handed pitching.
The Giants have a 90 wRC+ against southpaws this year, and while I'm often hesitant to put much value in the small samples that are pitcher vs. team results, Kershaw has had his way with them in two starts, allowing just two runs on seven hits in two starts.
This may very well be Kershaw's last regular season start in a Dodgers uniform, and I think the future Hall of Famer brings the goods. The Dodgers know they will have nearly a week off after their season wraps up on Sunday, so we don't have to worry too much about the rest factor. They'll just want to get Kershaw through five and coast from there.
I like L.A. in the first five specifically on Saturday, and would bet the Dodgers at -175 or better.
Pick: Dodgers F5 ML (-174)
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