It's the second-to-last Thursday of the season and despite a small slate, there's oodles of value on the board.
Our MLB analysts have pinpointed four games, including this afternoon's Brewers-Cardinals matchup. After that, we have two picks on Mets vs. Phillies and one each on Pirates vs. Cubs and Tigers vs. Athletics.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Thursday, September 21.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:15 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs. Cardinals
By D.J. James
Miles Mikolas is an awful pitcher, and the St. Louis Cardinals are, rightfully so, mailing it in at this stage of a terrible season. Mikolas has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He has a 5.81 ERA in the second half. On the season, he owns a 4.84 ERA against a 5.42 xERA, so regression was already forthcoming.
Adding to that, his barrel rate is 9.4%, his average exit velocity allowed is 90.5 mph and his hard-hit rate is 42.9%. Finally, he is only striking out 15.1% of hitters, even though he has a 4.1% walk rate.
His opponent will be Wade Miley, who has a 3.38 ERA against a 4.46 xERA. His barrel rate is 7.7%, his average exit velocity allowed is 87.2 mph and his hard-hit rate is 31.3%. He only strikes out 15.7% of hitters and walks about 7.8% of them. That said, he is a ground-ball guy and always has been. His ground-ball rate is 46.1% and in the 70th percentile of the league this season. Lastly, he holds a 3.89 ERA in the second half.
The Cardinals have struggled against lefties this month. They have a .673 OPS and 85 wRC+ with a 9.1% walk rate and 15.9% strikeout rate.
The Brewers have not necessarily crushed righties, but they have a .723 OPS and 97 wRC+ off of righties this month with a 10.2% walk rate and 25.5% strikeout rate. Since Mikolas barely strikes anyone out, this should not be too much of a concern.
The Brew Crew have six qualified hitters over a .300 xwOBA this month, which is not spectacular but should get the job done against Mikolas and a weak St. Louis bullpen.
Since Milwaukee has the fifth-best xFIP in relief this month, they should hold down the fort.
Back Milwaukee to -135.
Pick: Brewers ML (-105)
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Mets vs. Phillies
By Kenny Ducey
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but David Peterson is in a good spot on Thursday night against the Phillies.
Sure, I’ve given Peterson plenty of flak in the past – and I will continue to do so considering he’s given up 21 hits in just 15 2/3 innings this month. I’m generally not a fan of a guy who regularly pitches with plenty of runners on base.
With that said, Peterson’s been doing some things better of late. First of all, he’s really cut back on walks, allowing just three in his three September starts, while yielding just two homers in his last four outings. The biggest thing, though, is that his strikeout rate is up at 31.4% this month after showing steady improvement this summer.
The Phillies continue to be a team victimized by the strikeout, punching out in 25.5% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and in 25% of all appearances versus lefties. In addition to that, this is a fly-ball hitting team that won’t really enjoy facing a ground-ball artist like Peterson.
The Mets may be trotting out Peterson in a rare good spot, but they still grade out as a below-average offense against lefties this year and Ranger Suarez has seemed to have their number in the last two seasons, producing a 3.31 ERA in three starts.
With Suarez looking dangerous over the last two months and bringing his xBA down a bit in September, I think this one should be a game controlled by pitching. I'll play this under to -115.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102)
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Mets vs. Phillies
By Shayne Trail
The New York Mets have had a rough season, and their struggles should continue in this matchup against their division rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies.
When the Mets are underdogs on the road with odds of +140 or longer, their record is just 7-33 on the moneyline since the start of 2021. That includes a 4-12 mark this season.
Additionally, the Mets have had trouble when facing winning teams and left-handed pitching. In such instances, they're 7-26 since the start of 2022.
When it comes to facing Ranger Suárez, a left-handed pitcher, the Mets have struggled, managing only a .167 average in a total of 54 at-bats against him.
On the pitching side, the Mets are sending out David Peterson, who is considered one of the weaker pitchers in this already poor rotation. Peterson's statistics, including an expected batting average (xBA) of .264 and a high hard-hit rate of 45.6%, place him in the bottom 7% of pitchers in the league.
Overall, it seems like the Phillies have the upper hand in this matchup, with the two teams having very different seasons and trajectories.
Pick: Phillies ML (-160)
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Pirates vs. Cubs
We’ve got the wind blowing straight in at Wrigley Field today at around 6 mph, meaning we can bet on our trusty Wrigley Field Unders PRO model.
When the wind is blowing anywhere but out at Wrigley, Unders cash about 60% of the time. When the wind is blowing in, that makes run production even harder.
For what it’s worth, BallParkPal’s weather model projects a -12% Run Factor for today's game.
However, I’m also looking to fade both offenses here.
The Pirates have always been bad against right-handed pitching, but the Cubs' lineup is significantly overvalued. They put up a mid-season hot streak for the ages but have regressed significantly recently, posting MLB’s 19th-ranked wRC+ against the side over the past month (90).
The Cubs would never be the league’s best offense for half the year, but they’ve regressed further than I imagined. It’s resulted in an 8-11 record in September.
So, I think Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo can hold his own today.
He’s prone to blowups, and his command is an issue, but he has the pure stuff to be a good pitcher in this league (above-average sinker and slider).
Oviedo has improved significantly during the year, cutting his ERA from 4.75 in the first half to 3.53 in the second half. He’s cut his wOBA allowed by about 25 points during this second-half run (.323 in the first half, .299 in the second half), so there are some encouraging signs surrounding the young righty.
I’m not especially high on Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks, but his signature changeup might carry him through this one (18% swinging-strike rate on the pitch), given the Pirates flail against off-speed stuff (sixth-lowest xwOBA, seventh-highest whiff rate against changeups this year).
Combine the weather with two bad offenses and two pitchers with upside, and you’ve got the formula for a low-scoring ballgame. Our Action Network PRO model projects this total at 7.5, providing us with a run-sized edge over the market.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
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Tigers vs. Athletics
By Kevin Rogers
The Athletics have been swept in consecutive home series against the Padres and Mariners and will now try to end its skid against Detroit.
The Tigers avoided a sweep with a victory over the Dodgers last night and now Detroit plays its third straight series in California. Detroit went to Anaheim and swept the Angels before dropping two of three at Dodger Stadium.
Tarik Skubal is coming off three straight victories as the Tigers’ left-hander capped that stretch off by allowing three hits and one run in seven innings of an 11-2 blowout of the Angels. Skubal’s first start of the season came against the Athletics at home as he tossed four scoreless innings in a 1-0 defeat.
Oakland sends out Luis Medina, who has led after five innings only twice in 15 starts. However, the Athletics have fared well against left-handed starting pitchers by posting a 7-3-1 record in the last 11 games in the first five innings.
The Tigers have struggled in the series openers in the first five innings of late by leading twice in the last nine opportunities.
Detroit is playing much better than Oakland at the moment, but the Tigers seem a touch overpriced, especially off last night’s win over the Dodgers.
Let’s back Oakland at +0.5 in the first five innings at +100 or better.
Pick: Athletics F5 RL +0.5 (+106)
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