Less than a week remains until the start of the MLB postseason, and playoff-hopeful teams are running out of chances to stamp their ticket to the postseason.
It's a nail-biting week of baseball, no doubt.
Today's slate features 16 games, and our analysts are eyeing four bets in three different games from today's schedule: Rays vs. Red Sox, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, and Cubs vs. Braves.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Wednesday, September 27.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Start Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
| 7:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs. Red Sox
By D.J. James
The Tampa Bay Rays look like they will finish second in the American League East, behind the Baltimore Orioles. These games down the stretch will prime them for the playoffs. On Wednesday, Tampa Bay takes on the Boston Red Sox.
The Rays will throw Tyler Glasnow, a mainstay in their rotation. Glasnow has had a solid season with a 3.68 ERA and 3.78 xERA. His groundball rate is 50.4%. His Average Exit Velocity is high at 90.4 MPH, but if those balls are hit on the ground, it is not as much of a concern.
He also boasts a strikeout rate of 32.7% and a walk rate of 7.7%. This should be more than enough to take down a Boston Red Sox team that is aching for the season to finish.
That said, the Red Sox throw Brayan Bello this game. The 24-year-old has a 4.11 ERA and 4.22 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is a tad high at 89.6 MPH, but his walk rate is only 6.7% against a 20.1% strikeout rate. He is a reliable starter, and that is what matters here.
Tampa has a 3.29 xFIP in relief, the second-best in baseball this month. Although Boston’s bullpen has a 4.86 xFIP, there are a couple of relief arms that can back up Bello’s start.
Finally, both of these teams have been below average at the plate against righties this month. The Rays have a 95 wRC+, and Boston has an 82 wRC+.
With two of the best pitchers on each staff starting this game, the under should be in play. Take it to 7.5 (-110).
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays
By Kevin Rogers
The Yankees are out of playoff contention but are still looking to finish with a winning record as they own a 79-77 mark following Tuesday’s 2-0 victory at Toronto.
New York sends to the mound American League Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole, who has allowed one run in nearly 20 innings of work against Toronto this season. Cole shut down the Blue Jays at home last week by striking out nine batters in eight innings of a 5-3 victory.
If Cole receives at least one run of support in the first five innings, the Yankees own a 16-2-3 mark this season.
Jose Berrios has struggled in two starts against New York this season by giving up 13 hits and seven runs in those outings. The Toronto right-hander has fared better at home of late with wins over Boston and Kansas City while tossing seven innings in each of those victories.
Toronto’s offense has stumbled in the first five innings recently by getting blanked four times in the last five games, including last night.
The Yankees are riding a 21-10-8 record in the first five innings of their last 39 Game 2s of a series, including a 3-0-1 mark in the past four on the road.
Let’s back the Yankees in the first five innings against the Blue Jays at -108 and play it to -115.
Pick: Yankees F5 (-108)
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Cubs vs. Braves
By Tony Sartori
Gotta lay a bit of juice here, but I think it's worth the squeeze. For those who saw how Chicago lost last night's game, how could you bet on that team? Tough few weeks for Chicago sports.
OK, that is not my handicap, but that was a brutal turn of events that led to Milwaukee officially clinching the division. However, I do believe the Cubs are in trouble today as they hand the ball to right-hander Jameson Taillon.
It's been a career-worst season for Taillon, who is 7-10 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 27 starts. His underlying metrics are also terrible, ranking in the 23rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Barrel%.
You can't get away with bad pitching against Atlanta, a team that ranks first in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. The only reason the Braves are south of -170 in this game is because of right-hander Darius Vines, who makes his second career start on Wednesday.
His 4.40 ERA has kept this line short, but his underlying metrics are excellent. Although it is a very limited 14.1-inning sample size, Vines would rank in the top quarter among pitchers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% if he qualified.
Vines tore it up in Triple-A, going 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA. His ceiling is likely higher than Taillon's in this contest – so with the better starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup and home-field advantage, I am willing to lay the 56 cents on Atlanta.
Pick: Braves ML (-156 | Play up to -170)
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Cubs vs. Braves
By Kenny Ducey
It may seem like believing in Jameson Taillon is a hopeless cause, but the veteran righty has given us plenty to work with in the month of September. The former groundball artist has turned things around after one of the worst seasons of his career in that department, rolling up grounders at a 48.3% clip in four starts since the calendar turned.
It’s amounted to a 3.18 ERA backed by a splendid .201 xBA.
Why is this significant? Well, the Cubs own the second-best infield defense in baseball judging by Outs Above Average, and ground balls, as we know, are the key to keeping the ball in the yard and diffusing some of the biggest power sources in the game.
The Cubs’ 124 wRC+ over the last two weeks is better than the Braves’, and they’ve struck out in just 17.3% of plate appearances, which is second to only Cleveland during that time.
On top of that, their walk rate is among the best in the league during this time, and Darius Vines is a pitcher who has struggled a ton in that department in his short career.
I don’t think the Cubs should be priced quite this high given the recent success of both Taillon and their offense, and I certainly don’t see any reason why a pitcher with 14 1/3 big-league innings under his belt should be favored like this against a hot offense looking to secure a playoff spot.
Pick: Cubs ML (+140)
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