The Phillies' quality pitching staff is a key reason that they have become a trendy pick to represent the NL again in the World Series. Zack Wheeler put up a 3.29 ERA across his final seven starts of the season and certainly earned the right to make this crucial start against the Marlins.
Wheeler has a favorable opportunity to continue his excellent form Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park, as he matches up well versus the Marlins' offense. I wanted to back him in some fashion to come through with a strong showing, and in the end this is the look that seemed to have the most positive data points.
Marlins vs. Phillies Game 1 Props
Backing any pitcher to go over their outs total in a playoff game is a little scary, to be sure, as managers will by no means be eager to ride starters deep into games the way they would in a normal regular season contest. It will not take much of a struggle for Rob Thomson to start questioning if Zack Wheeler is his best option, but my faith in this matchup quells that concern.
First off, the Marlins have not hit right-handed pitching well by any means. Their 91 wRC+ to righties is the worst mark of any playoff roster aside from Milwaukee's, and that comes with a 24th-ranked OBP of only .312. They have seen just 3.82 pitches per appearance this season, which is 26th in baseball. At-bats ending quickly with the result being an out is obviously the dream scenario here, and Miami is a great matchup on that front.
Wheeler has averaged 18.77 outs in his last 15 games, going over this line 13 times. One of those two losses also came last time out in a meaningless game versus Pittsburgh. In a plus matchup versus Miami, oddsmakers are putting a lot of weight on the short-leash idea to not make him a heavier favorite to get through six innings.
Wheeler's excellent results comes with a strong underlying profile, which suggests he should continue to dominate this postseason. He owns an xERA of 3.18 and an xFIP of 3.54. In his 10 most recent starts, he owns an xFIP of 3.77, with a K/9 of 9.30. He owns a Stuff+ mark of 110 with a Location+ of 106 this season.
His 5.0 BB% aids him in getting deep into ball games, and his 4.0 pitches per appearance ranks 30th among qualified starters. Since 2021, he has struck out 25% of batters when facing the order for a third time — which is the 15th-best mark in baseball among pitchers to have thrown 190 innings.
Miami has also not fared well versus fastballs and sliders this season, which might make it vulnerable to Wheeler's arsenal. The Marlins own a -1.5 weighted value versus fastballs and a -31.3 weighted value versus sliders.
This spot sets up well for Wheeler to preserve his pitch count while also minimizing the damage in terms of runs, which should lead to an opportunity to get through the sixth inning often enough to provide value.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-114 at FanDuel)
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