Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
We close Tuesday's MLB slate with a Marlins vs. Phillies pick from Citizens Bank Park.
Can Jesus Luzardo quiet a trendy Philly offense, or will the Phillies bats once again prove be too much for the southpaw to handle?
Let's break down the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our Game 1 pick.
Miami Marlins
Two things are working for the Marlins entering this three-game series with the Phillies. The first is they're peaking at the right time, entering with five wins under their belt in seven tries. The second is that just a few weeks ago, Miami won two out of three in Philadelphia to take the season series, 7-6.
It was hotly contested, with Miami winning two one-run games, and if not for a Johnny Cueto clunker this team may have swept Philly on the road, which would have given it supreme confidence heading into this showdown.
The Marlins' offense has struggled for most of the season, ranking in the bottom third of the league with a 94 wRC+, and not much has changed in the second half. The good news is that Luis Arraez, who missed eight games down the stretch with a nagging ankle issue, will be in the lineup for Miami even if he's not 100%. He took batting practice on Monday.
Luzardo will need to do a lot for the Marlins to have a shot here, and his numbers heading into the game are sort of a mixed bag. The talented lefty had one good start versus the Phillies this year and one bad, amounting to a 3.65 ERA across 12 1/3 innings, and he was middling to close out the year with a 5.92 ERA in the month of August and a 3.68 ERA in September.
The 26-year-old has watched his walk rate jump over 9% in the past three months, though while his xBA was a poor .269 in August he's kept it to .226 in the months surrounding.
He's also experienced a decline in ground balls and strikeouts as the season has gone on, which is a concern when your hard-hit rate is in the bottom half of the league and your barrel rate is 9.3%.
Philadelphia Phillies
On the other side of the coin, Wheeler has been a menace on the hill. The veteran posted a 3.17 ERA in his final 15 starts of the year, posting two quality starts against the Marlins along the way. He owns a 3.00 ERA in three starts against Miami, striking out 17 in 18 innings of work.
Unlike Luzardo, Wheeler is something of a Statcast superstar. His expected ERA is a tasty 3.18, which puts him just outside the top 10% of all pitchers, due to his ability to limit walks and strike out hitters.
His 5% walk rate is one of the very best around, and his 26.9% strikeout rate is roughly five points higher than average. His four-seamer has been a bear to hit, producing a special .200 xBA, and it's also carried with it a 31.3% whiff rate.
As for the Phillies' offense, you probably know about them by now. They were seventh in wRC+ over the second half and finished in the top 10 for the entire season.
A big improvement for Philly came in the walk department, where they'd been flat in the first half. Phillies reached via the free pass in 9.8% of plate appearances, and that came with an impressive .207 ISO.
Marlins vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm not too confident in Luzardo heading into this start. Not only has he been a flawed pitcher beneath the surface, but his waning strikeout numbers and concerning trends in the walk department should really make this one a bad matchup for the lefty.
Philly is a tidy 30-21 in games against a left-hander this year, and with its incredibly strong walk numbers over the course of the second half I predict that record will improve to 31-21. Luzardo just can't afford to have traffic on the basepaths against a team hitting for this much power, particularly with his ground ball rate taking a critical hit over the last two months.
The Marlins hit just .223 with a poor .645 OPS against power pitchers this year, and Wheeler is the shining example of what classifies as a power pitcher as one of the best starters in strikeouts plus walks. With the way his fastball has been running, I don't see how Miami gets much done at the plate here.
I like taking the Phillies to lead after five, betting on Wheeler to own this matchup against Luzardo.
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