Marlins vs. Phillies Game 2 Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -114o / -106u | +128 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8 -114o / -106u | -152 |
After a commanding Game 1 victory at home on Tuesday night, the Philadelphia Phillies will take aim at the Miami Marlins once again on Wednesday as they look to complete a two-game sweep to advance to the National League Division Series.
Will Aaron Nola deliver and send the home team to the next round? Let's break it down in our Marlins vs. Phillies Game 2 preview and prediction.
Miami Marlins
The song remained the same for the Marlins on Tuesday in a 4-1 loss. They hit the ball on the ground throughout the game, and while they managed seven hits, the offense packed no punch. Miami, which led the league in ground ball rate this year, put 65.2% of all balls in play on the ground. It was a decent enough 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position, further illustrating just how far all these ground balls go.
While it's worth noting the Marlins were hitting .264 off of ground-ball pitchers this year compared to .254 against fly-ball pitchers, they had a .726 OPS against fly-ball pitchers and a .709 OPS against ground-ball pitchers. Overall, they ranked 24th in wRC+ over the second half of the season and should really pose no threat to Philadelphia's top two starters.
Speaking of starters, let's touch on Braxton Garrett here. The young lefty has been the most consistent option for the Marlins this season, starting 30 games with a 3.66 ERA. He was one of the worst in baseball in terms of exit velocity and expected batting average, but his solid 49% ground-ball rate, which puts him in the top 20% of all pitchers, made up for it. He's also done a great job over the last two seasons of limiting walks, and for a guy who pitches to contact, his 23.7% strikeout rate isn't too shabby.
Philadelphia Phillies
It seemed rather obvious that Zack Wheeler was going to be dominant in Game 1 on Tuesday, but it's anyone's guess what Aaron Nola is going to do on Wednesday.
The veteran righty opened his postseason last year with 12 scoreless innings against the Cardinals and Braves before allowing 14 earned runs over his next three starts. He has some outings where he looks like a top-five pitcher, and then he will turn around and string together some awful outings.
That has been the story of Nola's season in 2023. He stumbled to the finish with a 5.47 ERA in September, bringing his ERA for the year to 4.46 ERA. And while his 3.74 xERA offers some reason for hope, I think there's plenty not to like in this game about Nola. His strikeout rate sat at 29% and above from 2020 to 2022, but was down to 25.5% this year. His hard-hit rate jumped seven points and his xBA went from .211 to .241.
Nola owns a 6.75 ERA this year in three starts vs. Miami, allowing five home runs in 16 innings. He did manage to strike out 18 over those frames without a walk, but opponents' power numbers are of great concern for a team that doesn't hit for much.
Marlins vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Nola struggled against the Marlins this season, Garrett owned a 5.40 ERA in two starts vs. Philly. It turns out that trying to pitch to contact against a team that owns a 108 wRC+ against lefties isn't a winning formula, especially when you consider strikeouts are really the one thing that can slow the Phillies.
I'm encouraged by what we saw on Tuesday out of the Philly offense, which racked up 11 hits and likely would have scored more if it had gone better than 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position. I'm equally encouraged by the outlook for the Marlins here, given their positive results against Nola this year and their ability to get balls back into play.
Nola's .241 xBA should really pay off for those who believe in the Marlins lineup; the right-hander has been searching for his strikeout touch all year and has really struggled without it.
With the Marlins getting a bat on everything, and the Phillies remaining hot at the dish against a pitcher they match up very well with, I think we will see plenty of offense here.
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