Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 9 runs -118/ -104 | +1.5 -122 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-190 | 9 runs -118 / -104 | +1.5 +102 |
Giants vs. Dodgers has been one of baseball’s better rivalries this century, and these two teams have accounted for 15 of the past 16 NL West titles.
Granted, the Dodgers have won the division 13 of those times, but the Giants have three World Series titles to the Dodgers’ one during the stretch.
Either way, the rivalry lacks substance this season. The Giants are falling behind in the wild-card race while the Dodgers have already clinched the division.
But let’s not get too much into the historical significance of either franchise. I’m here to provide a Giants vs. Dodgers prediction and pick for this week’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
San Francisco Giants
After an August slump, the Giants offense has returned to the league average in September.
The Giants are 12th in wRC+ this month, checking in 5% above the average MLB offense (105). Mike Yastrzemski has found something, racking up a .942 OPS behind an 11.2% Walk Rate in September.
I’ve always thought Yaz had a lot of potential. He goes on crazy hot streaks behind the plate and is a consistent, steady force in center field. We haven’t seen him hit at a high level across a full season yet, but I’ll be thrilled if it ever happens.
At the minimum, Yaz always draws walks. He just never chases, and he’s got a great eye.
Still, the Giants are a flawed team overall. They’ve pigeonholed themselves with too many platoon bats, and it’s harder to find two guys who can hit each side than one who can hit both.
The pitching staff is carrying its weight, but injuries to Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani have severely shortened the rotation. Logan Webb is the only real MLB starter available, with the young-and-not-ready-for-MLB-action Kyle Harrison occupying the second spot.
Plus, the Giants don’t use closer Camilio Doval enough. He’s only made 25 appearances in the second half after 41 in the first.
These problems have sunk them in the wild-card race as the Giants are 7-13 in September with a -33 Run Differential.
Starting Pitcher: Ryan Walker (RHP)
Due to their severely shortened rotation, the Giants will run a bullpen game on Sunday Night Baseball behind Ryan Walker.
The rookie has made 45 appearances this season with a 3.20 ERA and a surprising 29.1% Strikeout Rate. He only has three pitches, but all three rate above average by Stuff+ (102 Sinker, 128 Slider, 139 Curveball).
Walker should see one or two innings on Sunday Night before handing off the rest of the game to an array of relief arms.
Again, this bullpen has been excellent on the year, but they’ve been slumping recently. Can the Giants’ relief arms bring out their best stuff on Sunday Night Baseball?
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are an incredible organization.
The way they’ve handled all the losses this season, dating back to the Gavin Lux ACL tear in the preseason, is nothing short of spectacular.
Again, when you have a lineup spearheaded by Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, you can survive a lack of pitching depth.
Behind their top two, the Dodgers’ offensive floor is so high. However, the help they’ve gotten from rookie James Outman (110 OPS+), and veteran J.D. Martinez (134 OPS+) has been the difference maker.
Martinez finding his power in LA is interesting. Last year in Boston, Martinez consistently found the sweet spot but didn’t have the juice to get the ball over the wall (43 doubles, 16 homers). Given the 10-point difference in Park Factor between Fenway and Chavez Ravine, nobody could’ve expected Martinez to hit 30 dingers this year.
Then again, Martinez is a pull-power hitter, and the absence of the Monster has led to several added homers. Sometimes, that’s all a veteran needs.
While shaky at times, the Dodgers' bullpen has been impressive, at least in my eyes. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson have a combined 1.95 ERA across 180 innings this year.
It's also impressive that the bullpen has gotten stronger as the season has progressed. The Dodgers have the second-best reliever Expected FIP over the past month (3.35) and a 1.71 bullpen ERA over the past two weeks.
Sadly, the injuries to the rotation have been far more severe. The Dodgers plan on running a playoff rotation of Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot, with maybe some Clayton Kershaw and (gulp) today’s starting pitcher thrown in.
Starting Pitcher: Lance Lynn (RHP)
No pitcher describes the Dodgers’ depth crisis more than Lynn.
I was hopeful the mythical Los Angeles coaching staff would “fix” Lynn, emphasizing his strengths (zone whiffs with his three-fastball mix) while minimizing his weaknesses (home runs).
Unfortunately, the opposite has happened. Since moving to the West Coast, Lynn has 37 strikeouts and 14 homers allowed in 52 innings. His Zone-Contact Rate was under 80% with Chicago, and it’s 86% since the trade.
Lynn’s results are mysterious, but he’s easy to “understand,” for lack of a better phrase.
When Lynn’s four-seam-cutter-sinker mix works in the zone, he registers Spencer Strider-like Whiff numbers. Check out his 16-strikeout game from earlier this season.
However, when his stuff is a tad off or hitters manage contact on his zone-heavy mix, he allows harder contact than anyone in the league. That’s where his long-ball problem comes from, as any contact with a zone fastball is instantly rocketed into the atmosphere.
Right now, Lynn is in a bad place.
Giants vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Giants’ lineup is a tad undervalued as they’ve bounced back from that unruly mid-August stretch.
The lineup is still flawed, but it’s not entirely incompetent.
I’d give a slight pitching advantage to the Giants tonight. Walker is a legit reliever by the Stuff+ metrics, and I still believe in the San Francisco bullpen, even if the numbers have slumped recently.
Ross Stripling saved the Giants bullpen last night by tossing four innings in a 7-0 loss. Among San Francisco’s high-leverage arms, only Taylor Rogers was used.
Meanwhile, Lynn is a disaster, and any competent lineup can exploit him.
Yaz could hit him hard, but so could any of the Giants’ platoon guys. Lynn’s wOBA allowed jumps about 90 points against left-handed hitters compared to right-handed bats, and San Francisco has LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto ready to roll at the top of the lineup.
It’s always tough to fade the Dodgers’ lineup, but I’m willing to do it against Lynn when factoring in San Francisco’s lineup, solid opener and bullpen ceiling.
The Giants feel a tad cheap here at big plus-money odds. It's not like the Dodgers need any more wins, anyway.
