Dodgers vs. Guardians Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 8.5 -120 / -120 | -1.5 -120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+168 | 8.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 +100 |
Just about a month ago, the Dodgers sent Noah Syndergaard away, giving up on a rare failed pitching experiment. Now, he's back – only this time he'll be taking aim at his former team in a new uniform.
Can Thor find himself again and deliver a pitcher's duel against young Bobby Miller?
Let's break down how to bet Dodgers vs. Guardians in our preview and prediction.
Los Angeles Dodgers
First let's talk about Miller, who is arguably the best pitching prospect up right now at the big-league level.
He has one of the most powerful fastballs around, averaging, 99.2 mph, and normally couples that with a sinker, slider and curveball.
It's clear that Miller's stuff is incredible, but he's had a tough time figuring out how to best leverage it thus far as a pro. Even last season, Miller owned a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings across Double-A and Triple-A. This year in the bigs, he's been a highly volatile pitcher with a 3.70 ERA.
The main issue is that opponents are beginning to get better and better at hitting Miller's fastball. It generated just a .220 xBA in June and has jumped in each month since, reaching .311 in August. His entire repertoire this month has produced a season-worst .261 xBA and 44.7 hard-hit rate, though his ground ball rate is nearly up at 50% again.
It seems inevitable that Miller will be a high-strikeout arm one day, but that almost always takes time. He's fanned 22.4% of batters he's faced at this level, which constitutes as average, and he's had a hard time getting outs via contact.
Miller is a work in progress, but with his talent, we have seen he can look brilliant on any given night.
As for this Dodgers offense, things have slowed down a bit, which is expected when you face the Brewers and Marlins. L.A. owns just a 96 wRC+ over the past two weeks, especially lacking in the power department with a .149 ISO. Its plate discipline numbers remain the same, though, so there's not too much cause for concern here.
Cleveland Guardians
So far it's been more of the same for Syndergaard after donning a Guardians jersey. He's pitched to a 5.06 ERA in four starts with just 11 strikeouts and six walks in 21 1/3 innings.
Most concerning of all would be the fact that he's already allowed six home runs after surrendering 12 in 55 1/3 innings over in L.A.
Syndergaard's actually been having a decent amount of success, or expected success, with his four-seam fastball and, in recent starts, has begun to throw the pitch more. Something seemed to work in his last start when he generated a 47.4% ground ball rate, marking just his fourth outing with a number that good. Still, Syndergaard has a long way to go before he can generate enough ground balls – and fieldable ones, at that – to consider himself successful at pitching to contact.
Cleveland's offense may be in the gutter at the moment, ranking 29th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but it seems like business as usual other than that. The Guardians' strikeout rate remains low at 20.7% and they own the second-highest ground ball rate in baseball during that span.
Dodgers vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't like this matchup at all for Miller. He's had a hard time turning ground balls into outs throughout the course of this season, and there is no better team in baseball at converting ground balls into base hits than the Guardians.
He also should be offered no help whatsoever in his quest to improve his strikeout rate considering Cleveland's excellence in putting the ball back in play.
While Syndergaard's numbers may be a nightmare these days, his recent expected numbers with the fastball could influence him to throw it a little bit more here against his former team. Considering L.A. is just 18th against four-seamers over the last two weeks, he might be able to get some outs via contact.
I also think the Dodgers, who are a notoriously patient team at the dish, may start jumping at pitches early considering Syndergaard is a strike-thrower, and that could throw them for a loop.
I'm going to be bold here and recommend a play on the Guardians. I just love the way this offense matches up with Miller.
