The Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a difficult spot on Wednesday, heading to Arizona down 2-0 with few positives to take away from the first two games of this series.
L.A. will hold its breath and send Lance Lynn to the hill to try and stay alive in this series, and the Diamondbacks will counter with the volatile Brandon Pfaadt.
Does this pitching matchup offer any hope for the Dodgers? Let's break it down in our NLDS Game 3 Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks pick and preview.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Odds, Wednesday, October 11
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's been just two games, but we're still waiting for some signs of life out of this Dodgers offense. By most metrics, they were undoubtedly the second-best lineup in baseball this season, yet in this series they've slashed just .159/.254/.254.
Making matters worse is the fact that this Diamondbacks pitching staff let a terrible Brewers offense hit over .300 in the Wild Card Round, putting these two games into serious question. Both Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen had questionable seasons with poor numbers against the Dodgers, and both dominated this offense.
With the Dodgers down 2-0, I'd certainly upgrade the concern level here for their lineup to a full-blown panic. Will Smith was the lone provider of offense in Game 1, and in Game 2 he disappeared while Mookie Betts remained hitless. Freddie Freeman also fouled a ball off his knee in a scary-looking incident, and he may not be feeling 100% entering this game.
Unlike the previous two games, the Dodgers won't enter this one with the expectation that their starting pitcher will give them a chance to win. That's because Lynn, despite his 7-2 record in 11 starts with the Dodgers, has coughed up a 4.36 ERA since coming over from the White Sox.
L.A. opted to have Lynn throw more fastballs, only to see his xBA on the pitch rise to levels that weren't yet seen this season. Across all of his pitches, that number got worse when he joined L.A., rising to roughly .250, and his strikeouts steadily declined to just under 16% in September.
Arizona Diamondbacks
You might say the Diamondbacks' offense is getting hot at the right time. After a middling season at the plate, this team has slugged nine home runs in four postseason games, posting an excellent .861 OPS that is the best of the National League teams. They've hit .300 in this series, specifically, and their walk rate sits at a robust 9.5%.
As for their pitcher, Pfaadt, it's a little complicated. When he was initially called up to the big leagues, he posted a brutal 9.82 ERA in six starts, with opponents hitting .346 against him with nine homers and 10 walks over 25 2/3 innings.
Pfaadt 2.0 has been a little bit better. After he was sent down to Triple-A for some fine-tuning, the rookie right-hander returned full time in July to register a 4.22 ERA in 70 1/3 innings, sporting much better numbers across the board.
While his ground-ball rate was down in the dumps through two months, he managed to get it up to around 35% in the final three months of the season. While this isn't a high number, Pfaadt is a fly ball pitcher — but even an expert fly ball pitcher is going to have a tough time getting outs with a sub-20% ground ball rate.
On top of that, Pfaadt's strikeout numbers improved with every month, culminating in a season-best 27.3% strikeout rate in the final month of the season. He also managed to significantly improve in the walk department, going from disastrous to downright elite at just 5.3% since coming back to the bigs.
We should mention that Pfaadt 2.0 struggled against the Dodgers in his two starts following being recalled, allowing nine earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, but head-to-head hasn't seemed to matter yet in this series.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Any way you slice it, the Diamondbacks are seriously outperforming the Dodgers. Their bullpen, which was a question mark entering the postseason, has pitched to a 1.15 ERA through four games. Their offense has slugged nine home runs and has tormented some of the most talented pitchers in the NL.
The Dodgers have given Arizona's starting pitchers some help, but the Diamondbacks' hurlers have also made some big pitches in pressure moments.
I don't think there's any sense in betting on the Dodgers' offense to magically wake up here against the ever-improving Pfaadt, and on the other side of the coin Lynn has offered little hope at turning things around at 36 years of age.
He's surrendered 16 home runs in just 64 innings in a Dodgers uniform, and he will now try to keep the ball in the yard against a team that can't stop hitting the longball.
This is a great price on the Diamondbacks at home, and I will be capitalizing.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
