In 2021, the Diamondbacks and Rangers both lost over 100 games, but just two years later, they are facing off in the World Series.
The Rangers will host Game 1 in Arlington, and unlike the ALCS, they will have to win at least one game at home to win the World Series.
Evan Carter could help in that regard if he continues to stay hot this postseason. He will face Zac Gallen, who has been solid this postseason and given manager Torey Lovullo quality innings. That may help him pitch long enough to issue two walks as well.
Find my MLB player props and picks for Game 1 of the World Series between the Diamondbacks and Rangers below.
Diamondbacks vs Rangers Game 1 Props
Evan Carter Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
-110 at DraftKings
Evan Carter may be a rookie, but he has continued to play with the poise of a postseason veteran. He is hitting .308 with a .987 OPS and has a hit in 11 of the 12 postseason games in which he has played. In the lone game he did not get a hit, he was pinch hitter for Robbie Grossman. As a result, Carter has hit this line in seven of 12 games this postseason.
Overall in the playoffs, Carter has 12 hits, and seven of them have gone for extra bases. He is -195 to record a hit/total base on DraftKings but is +120 for two total bases on FanDuel if you want more juice.
I am going with this combo because of how consistently he has gotten on base, which should translate to at least one hit. He also has been batting third of late, which is prime position in the Rangers lineup.
In the three-hole, Carter bats behind Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, which puts him in a great position to drive in a run — if Seager doesn't knock them in first.
He is also batting in front of Adolis Garcia, who had 14 RBI in the ALCS. Carter has scored a run in each of his last three games, crossing the plate four times in that span. One hit and run scored or run batted in hits this line.
Additionally, I am also sprinkling Carter to win World Series MVP at +2000 on DraftKings.
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Garcia and Seager are the favorites as the stars of the team, and Seager won World Series MVP in 2020 with the Dodgers. However, several non-household names have won World Series MVP recently such as Steven Pearce, Jeremy Pena (also a rookie last season), Ben Zobrist and David Freese. Carter is a realistic enough longshot to join them.
Pick: Evan Carter Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-110 at DraftKings)
Zac Gallen Over 1.5 Walks
-160 at DraftKings
Zac Gallen has a 5.48 ERA in four postseason starts, which is not great, but he allowed nine runs in his two starts against the Phillies before their bats went cold. However, he allowed just two runs in his first two starts this postseason against the Brewers and Dodgers.
He has been an innings eater as he's pitched five innings in all four of his postseason starts and six innings in two of them. He has averaged over six innings in his 38 starts between the regular season and playoffs.
If Gallen is going to work relatively deep into the game, that also increases the chances of walking two batters as well. Walks were profitable for us in the regular season but are a bit more risky to play pregame with starters having shorter leashes in the playoffs.
However, Gallen has walked two batters in each of his four postseason starts and in seven of his last 10 dating back to the regular season. I have also documented several times that Gallen struggles a lot more on the road. He has walked two batters in each of his last five road starts and has hit this line at a 57% clip on the road this postseason.
He will face a Rangers lineup that was eighth in the majors in Walk Rate in the regular season and also second in the postseason. Gallen has also issued walks to Semien, Seager and Nathaniel Lowe in his career. If he pitches five or six innings, he will face 20 batters. If he walks two of them, he will cash this line for us.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 1.5 Walks (-160 at DraftKings)
