The odds for World Series Game 1 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers see the home Rangers as -168 favorites on the moneyline. The road Diamondbacks are +142 underdogs on the moneyline.
The total for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1 has been set at 8, juiced to -114 toward the over and -106 toward the under.
On the spread, a run line bet of +1.5 on the Diamondbacks has -152 odds, while Rangers -1.5 spead is +126.
Here is a preview and Diamondbacks vs Rangers Game 1 prediction for the World Series.
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Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Game 1 Odds, Prediction
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -162 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +134 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
It's hard to say the Diamondbacks are here on account of their offense. Sure, they have clubbed 18 homers in 12 games, but Arizona's OPS for the postseason stands at a pedestrian .741 and just five of those round-trippers came against the Phillies in the NLCS.
On the flip side, their staff did register a fine 3.23 ERA versus Philly, but the bullpen continued to be an issue with a 3.77 ERA in 28 2/3 innings. Most of the heavy lifting has been done by this team's front-end starting pitching, and Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald have been virtually untouchable in the late innings.
One of those front-line starters, Zac Gallen, will get the ball to open up this series on Friday.
Things started off well enough for him in October with just four runs charged to his line in 11 1/3 innings, but with just eight strikeouts and with 10 hits against him they certainly weren't starts of the highest quality.
He then crumbled in the NLCS, allowing five home runs in 11 innings to bring his postseason ERA to 5.24, and he managed to strike out just five in 11 innings.
It's more or less a continuation of what we've seen all season from Gallen. The right-hander posted his worst hard-hit rate as a pro by a country mile at a poor 46.2%. With the lowest strikeout rate of his career, he posted another career worst with a 4.18 xERA.
He was still striking out 26% of batters, but he pitched to more fly balls and a much higher expected average. If not for his excellence in limiting walks, he might have a far worse expected ERA.
To no one's surprise, the influx of fly balls actually helped him at spacious Chase Field, where he pitched to a 2.47 ERA in 16 starts. In 18 starts away from home, he had a 4.42 ERA, and of the whopping 22 homers he allowed on the year 15 of them came on the road.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers profile similarly in the pitching department. Their bullpen has been an issue all season, and in the ALCS it was torched to the tune of a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings. It was a big step in the wrong direction, but given their brilliance against the Orioles it could have just been a case of stepping to a superior lineup.
The team's starting pitching, outside of a rusty Max Scherzer, was pretty good. The lead man was Nathan Eovaldi, who will get the ball on Friday, and it's hard to say things will get any worse for him against an unimposing D'backs offense.
The right-hander turned in his second-best season ever in the ground-ball department, with 51.5% of batted balls coming back on the ground, and on these hits opponents hit a predictable .165 against one of the best infield defenses around.
He has posted an excellent 1.04 ground out-to-air out ratio in 26 innings this October and should have his pupils dilated on one of the most extreme ground-ball offenses in the game. He has also found control in four postseason starts, walking just four in four starts after a tough season in that department.
Speaking of ground outs and air outs, no one had a lower ratio (0.55) than the fly-ball happy Texas Rangers. They've hit 22 home runs in 12 postseason games, which puts them second in the postseason to only the Phillies, and a whopping 15 of those came against the Houston Astros.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Arizona should come crashing back down to earth against a ground-ball pitcher in Eovaldi. This is a terrible matchup for the Snakes, who should be robbed of some hits by this excellent infield defense, and as a team that walked at just a 8.8% clip this year, it's hard to see them exploiting Eovaldi's frequent issues with the free pass.
On the other hand, Gallen's had some massive problems keeping the ball in the yard this season and his ground out-to-air out ratio of 0.88 this postseason is even worse than the decent enough 0.93 mark he posted during the regular season. I do think his ability to limit walks will make the total here a tough one to bet.
Instead, I'm going to play a fun prop here and take the Rangers to hit more than one home run. We saw what this offense could do with 15 homers in seven games played at hitters' parks, and their 143 home runs hit at home this year ranked second in the league.
Gallen should serve up two homers all by himself, but if he doesn't, I don't really have faith in the Diamondbacks' bullpen, which has struggled outside of its two late-inning guys.
I like the Rangers to cover the run line with how well I expect Eovaldi to pitch, but I think there's far more value here.
Pick: Rangers Over 1.5 Home Runs (+115 at DraftKings)
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