Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 7 Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -115 / -105 | +145 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -115 / -105 | -175 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 7 odds opened with the Phillies as -175 favorites on the moneyline. The Diamondbacks are underdogs at +145.
The total has been set at 8.5 and 8, juice at -115 to the over and -105 to the under. On the spread, Phillies -1.5 is +120 while the Diamondbacks +1.5 is -142.
Find a betting prediction, pick and preview for NLCS Game 7 between the Diamondbacks and Phillies below.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt looked like a different pitcher after returning from Triple-A following a poor start to his big-league career, and that showed out in a big way in his Game 3 start against the Phillies.
A look at his regular season numbers won't blow you away, mostly because of how bad he was after his initial call-up. He had an 11.7% Barrel Rate with a 90.1 mph Average Exit Velocity and 44% Hard-Hit Rate. He also had a 22.3 % strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate with a 4.61 xERA against a 5.72 ERA.
Including that Game 3 start in Arizona, he has allowed three earned runs over his last 12 2/3 innings with 15 strikeouts against one walk. While the results have been good in a small sample size, the stuff has been legit.
The Diamondbacks' offense put together a strong showing against Aaron Nola on Monday, and have provided a big boost after lackluster results during the regular season. They now have six bats eclipsing a 100 wRC+ in the postseason. The struggled particularly against lefties, though, and that was apparent in that Game 3 outing when Ranger Suárez struck them out seven times in just five innings.
The Diamondbacks will presumably have every pitcher save Merrill Kelly available in this winner-take-all game, and that'll need it because the bullpen has lackluster numbers overall. However, like the offense, they have been better in the postseason. They have five arms in the playoffs below a 4.00 xFIP. All of those arms now have a 9.7% or lower walk rate.
Philadelphia Phillies
When Suárez is on it's because he's keeping the ball on the dirt. He held a 48.8% groundball rate during the regular season, and that effort is part of the reason he was able to hold the D'backs to just three hits in Game 3.
Monday's game showed us for the first time that the Phillies' offense can, in fact, look human while playing in front of the home crowd. The big question here will be whether Pfaadt can hold them in check the way he did in Game 3 — which was in Phoenix.
In the playoffs, the Phils have six batters above a 100 wRC+, and while the offense as a whole can put together big innings, Pfaadt will need to be able to neutralize big boppers like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to stay in this game. Considering his stuff, I'm optimistic, and if he's able to avoid the free pass that'll be another big boost.
Like the Diamondbacks, everyone in the Phillies' bullpen will presumably be available in Game 7 save for Aaron Nola. The Phillies have been relying heavily on the likes of Jeff Hoffman, and Seranthony Dominguez has also been solid when called upon. They're currently the only two relievers with an xFIP under 4.00 in the postseason.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Pfaadt and Suárez pitching Game 7 is funny in a matchup of teams with clear aces, but that's the way things fall sometimes in a long series like this. Neither is a notable name to the average fan, but both have what it takes to make this a low-scoring affair.
While we saw an offensive outburst in ALCS Game 7 on Monday night, the smart money is generally to go with the under in a winner-take-all game where all the top arms will be available. That's what we're doing here.
I would play this under down to 8.
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