The Philadelphia Phillies are favored over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday evening from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are -162 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are +136. The total is 7.5.
For the second straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies dispatched the 100-plus win Atlanta Braves on their way to the NLCS. Philadelphia has been dominant this postseason, winning on a combination of shutdown pitching, exciting offense, and a cheat code homefield advantage. The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, outscoring its opponents, 31-10.
The Phillies' triumph over the Braves stole all the headlines and overshadowed what Arizona has done this postseason. Despite being the last team to qualify for the playoffs and winning just 84 games during the regular season, the Diamondbacks have cruised to a 5-0 postseason record. They have outscored their opponents 30-11.
Philadelphia is a sizable favorite in the series, but Arizona has been a big underdog in the last two series and continues proving the doubters wrong. So, does the value once again lie with the underdog snakes? Let’s break down NLCS Game 1 on Monday and give out a Diamondbacks vs. Phillies pick.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds for NLCS Game 1
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7 -122o / +100u | +144 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 7 -122o / +100u | -172 |
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Early in the season, Zac Gallen looked like he was going to contend for the NL Cy Young Award. He was brilliant during the first half of the season before eventually tailing off a bit toward the end of the year. Gallen still finished the season with a 3.47 ERA and has proven when he is on his game, he is one of the most dangerous pitchers in baseball.
Gallen has a terrific fastball that he mixes well with a changeup and a great curveball that serves as his main strikeout pitch, generating a 40.6% whiff rate. Gallen doesn’t walk many hitters, posting a career-low 5.6% walk rate this season.
Arizona’s offense was pretty mediocre throughout the regular season. The Diamondbacks finished the year ranked 17th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are the only two players to finish with a wRC+ above 120. When Arizona did get on base, they made the most of it with elite baserunning and speed.
During their postseason run, this offense has come to life. Arizona is tied for the postseason lead with 13 home runs, and they are averaging six runs per game. Only Philadelphia has a higher team OPS than the Diamondbacks. Carroll and Marte are both having terrific postseasons, each with seven hits and two home runs.
Philadelphia Phillies
I’m not sure there is a single pitcher in all of baseball you would rather have on the mound for a playoff start than Zack Wheeler. He established himself as one of the league’s best pitchers throughout the regular season with his 3.61 ERA being the sixth straight season with an ERA below 4.00. But Wheeler has also proven to be dominant in the postseason.
Over the last two seasons, Wheeler has started eight playoff games and posted a 2.59 ERA. He has held opponents to under three earned runs in six of those starts. He has pitched into the seventh inning in both starts this season and struck out 10 Atlanta hitters in his last outing.
Wheeler throws a fastball that topped 98 miles per hour in his last outing as well as a sinker, slider, and a new-look sweeper that has been lights out. He doesn’t issue free passes with one of the lowest walk rates in the league.
It all started with a standing ovation for Trea Turner in early August. Since that point, Philadelphia has had a top-three offense in baseball, and I can’t remember the last time a team has fed off their home crowd the way the Phillies do a Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia has hit a ridiculous 11 home runs in four games in Philadelphia this postseason. You know a team is rolling when you can argue multiple players have been the team’s best player. Bryce Harper continues to come up clutch for the Phillies, but Nick Castellanos has four home runs in the last two games and Trea Turner is batting .500 with a 1.455 OPS this season.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
As dominant as these two offenses have been, I am going to back the pitchers in Game 1. Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and has only seemed to get stronger in the postseason. He posted a 3.21 xERA and has pitched into the seventh inning in both playoff starts. He has racked up 18 strikeouts in 13 innings, issuing just one walk.
In two starts against Arizona during the regular season, Wheeler allowed four earned runs in 12 innings. The strength of this Diamondbacks team is their baserunning and speed, as well as their defense. Philadelphia is able to limit that advantage.
Ever since Harper took over at first base and Kyle Schwarber moved to DH, the Phillies have become incredibly strong on defense. Bryson Stott is one of the best defensive infielders in the game and rookie Johan Rojas showed last round how valuable he is in centerfield.
Arizona loves to be aggressive on the base paths. They finished second in stolen bases, but Philadelphia was right up there too, ranking seventh. The Phillies also have the best defensive catcher in J.T. Realmuto. In seven games against Philadelphia this year, the Diamondbacks had just four stolen bases.
It is scary to fade this Phillies offense at home, but I expect Wheeler to shut down the Diamondbacks and I still think Gallen is a top-tier pitcher in the game. His production has dropped off in the second half of the year, and he had a few dud outings, but when he is on his game he can be terrific.
In two starts this postseason, Gallen pitched into the sixth inning and allowed just two runs. He also allowed two runs over six innings in his start against the Phillies during the regular season. Both of these pitchers consistently pitch deep into games. Gallen finished second in the league in innings pitched and Wheeler finished 12th.
Both teams will have their bullpens at full strength if either pitcher does find themselves in any sort of trouble early. Both of these offenses have been red hot, so naturally I am going to hold my breath and play an under and trust the two aces on the mound.
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