The Arizona Diamondbacks' 3-0 start to the postseason is a great story in MLB. They have been on fire at the plate, generating 22 runs in three contests versus mainly high-quality arms, including a massive 11-run output in Game 1 of the NLDS.
Monday's matchup could be the time to sell high on the Snakes offensively as they run into the Dodgers' true ace in Bobby Miller, who was quietly dominant down the stretch and features a sky-high ceiling this postseason.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Game 2 Props
The premise of this prop is simple: Bobby Miller will record a win if he A) completes at least five innings, B) leaves the game with the Dodgers in front, and C) the Dodgers hold on to that lead for the remainder of the game.
I wanted to bet Miller in some fashion on Monday and this seems the best way to go about it. The Dodgers should get to Zac Gallen this evening and I see Miller dominating despite the Diamondbacks' offensive success thus far in the postseason.
Miller's electric stuff really started to translate into results down the stretch this season. In his final six starts of the regular season, Miller pitched to a 3.16 xFIP and struck out 9.82 batters per nine innings. He was hard-hit just 32% of the time.
While those marks were all improvements from his strong season-long metrics, they could be sustainable based upon the quality of his arm. He owns a 123 Stuff+ rating, which is the fifth-best mark in baseball. He holds a Location+ mark of 123.
Excluding his tune-up start versus San Francisco on Oct. 1, Miller enters on a nine-start stretch of recording 18 outs or more. He has averaged 19 outs per start in that span. Dave Roberts will have no reason to leave him in longer than need be, as the Dodgers' top bullpen arms are still very rested.
Even still, the level of dominance we have seen from Miller gives me faith he finishes five innings, particularly in leading game scripts, and I expect the Dodgers to be ahead early.
Miller's underlying results down the stretch were considerably better than Gallen's, too. Despite Gallen's impressive profile, which will likely garner some NL Cy Young votes, it is entirely fair to suggest Miller is the better starter in this matchup at this point in time.
Gallen was hard-hit 50% of the time over his final 10 starts, and he ultimately finished with an xERA of 4.18 on the season. He owned a 3.73 ERA in those final 10 outings, which certainly seems to be at least fair to his true level if not on the luckier side of things.
The D'backs' scorching hot start to the postseason in a tiny sample aside, the Dodgers are clearly the more potent offensive side in a righty-righty matchup. Los Angeles hit to a wRC+ of 117 versus right-handed pitching this season, while Arizona was below league average with a mark of 99.
Pick: Bobby Miller to Record a Win (+205 at bet365)
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