Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers odds have home Los Angeles favored against road Arizona.
After a shellacking at the hands of Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers will aim to pick up the pieces and even their NLDS series at one game apiece. Will wunderkind Bobby Miller deliver the goods for the home favorites, or is another upset on the cards with Zac Gallen going for Arizona?
Let's get into it in our Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Game 2 pick and preview.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds Monday
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 +100o / -122u | +136 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 8 +100o / -122u | -162 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks may have struggled to hit for most of the season, but they're quickly earning some respect at the dish. Arizona posted an excellent .768 in two games versus a vaunted Brewers pitching staff, then turned right around and smacked an elite Dodgers staff for 10 runs on 13 hits.
The Diamondbacks have now hit eight home runs in three games and appear to be a well-oiled machine heading into Monday night.
Arizona has to be feeling great considering it may not need many runs to win with Zac Gallen on the hill. He finished his fifth season in the league with a 3.47 ERA in 34 starts, results which will net him some Cy Young votes.
Gallen has done a wonderful job maintaining his strikeout numbers, sitting down 26% of all batters he's faced, and he's improved upon an already-low walk rate at just 5.6% this season.
Beneath the surface, there are certainly some signs of trouble. Gallen has pitched to a very poor 46.2% hard-hit rate, and with a fly ball rate which has risen to three points above the league norm his barrel rate has shot all the way up to 9.2%.
This has all amounted in a .253 xBA and 4.18 xERA, numbers which certainly aren't terrible, but aren't quite as good as what we saw last year out of Gallen.
A story to watch here would certainly be Gallen's pair of stinkers against the Dodgers which bookended his season. He opened up the year by allowing five runs on six hits and three walks against L.A. back in March and allowed six runs on three walks and nine hits against Los Angeles at the end of August, which saw him allow four homers.
Both starts came at Dodger Stadium, and it's certainly shocking to see the six walks over 10 innings when you consider how great he's been in that area.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers will counter here with young Bobby Miller, who has all the tools to be the game's next dominant arm. His fastball sits at 98.9 mph on average, which is in the top 2% of the league, and while his strikeout numbers have fluctuated he's still sitting just above the league average and finished up his season by striking out a solid 28.4% of the batters he faced in September.
While the Diamondbacks have been hitting homers left and right, it's unlikely to continue against Miller. He's allowed just 12 roundtrippers in 124 1/3 innings as a rookie, allowing barrels at just a 6% rate.
All told, it's very hard to do damage against a guy who is ever-improving in his first big-league season and has started his career off with a .230 xBA and 3.45 xERA. His ground ball rate has also sat right around 50% in the past two months, making life even more difficult on his opponents.
In terms of the Dodgers' offense, I'm really not sure what to say. They are every bit as good as their results have indicated, sitting fourth in barrels per plate appearance for the season and second in xwOBA. That would back up their second-place finish in Isolated Power and OPS, and it should just be a matter of time before the runs start to come.
It's worth noting that the Dodgers had nearly a week off before playing Arizona, and by the third time through the order on Saturday night this team put together much better at-bats and had some success at the dish.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm not going to overreact to one game here with the Dodgers. This is an excellent offense which will make plenty of noise before this series is over, and while prior success against Kelly didn't lead them to victory on Saturday, I do think this team has a great shot at Gallen given its ability to draw six walks and hit four home runs over just 10 innings versus the right-hander.
Gallen is obviously a special talent who has already accomplished plenty in his big-league career, but it's hard to deny he's taken a step back this season. There's always a chance he could come out and shove, but what we've seen over the course of six months would lead me to believe this start is going to be an arduous one.
On the other hand, Miller has seemed to improve with every start he's made in the big leagues and I think despite Arizona's very impressive few games here this will be his night. I anticipate a big bounce-back game for the Dodgers to level the series at one.
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