Cubs vs. Rockies Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -128 | 12.5 -110o / -110u | -184 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +106 | 12.5 -110o / -110u | +154 |
Home field advantage has been non-existent for the Colorado Rockies, who own an NL worst 29-39 home record entering tonight's matchup with the playoff-contending Chicago Cubs.
The Rockies dropped the series opener, 5-4, and are priced as +160 underdogs to win this matchup in which they counter the Cubs' Javier Assad (2.83 ERA, 92 1/3 IP) with Chris Flexen (7.36 ERA, 80 2/3 IP).
Chicago Cubs
Assad faced a tough matchup versus the Diamondbacks on Thursday, and they were able to get him for seven hits and three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. He was unable to continue his run of recent dominance produced versus the Reds, Pirates, Tigers and White Sox.
Assad has fared well this season, allowing a BABIP of just .255 despite a hard-hit rate of 41.5%. He has struck out only 18.1% of batters faced and owns an xERA of 4.82 compared to his actual rate of 2.83. His Stuff+ mark sits at 93 and his Location+ mark at 99.
With RISP, opposing batters own a miss rate of just 18% and a chase % of 24 versus Assad. Still, a combination of luck and timely ground balls has allowed him to strand 84.7% of batters.
If that clip trends downward, as we should expect, it could result in an ERA spike, and Coors Field could make for a concerning ballpark for his pitching style.
Chicago's bullpen has pitched to a 4.20 xFIP and 3.96 ERA over the last 30 days.
Colorado Rockies
Colorado's recent offensive play has been disastrous, as the Rockies own a wRC+ of 77 over the last 30 days. Having Kris Bryant back in the lineup could possibly offer a boost, although he has hit to a wRC+ of just 83 this season and owns an OPS of .714.
Depending on usage, Bryant's return could also affect Elehuris Montero's ability to get in the lineup, which would have to be viewed as a negative in a lost season. The 25-year-old's recent play has been a bright spot for the Rockies, as he has hit .400 in September with a 1.113 OPS.
Since the All-Star break, Montero owns a .291 BA and has slugged .482. In 107 PAs at Coors, he owns a .326 batting average. He has hit to reverse splits thus far this season with a .260 average versus righties.
Montero's greatest strength has been an elite ability to hit fastballs, but his greatest weakness has been an inability to hit off-speed and breaking stuff. He has slugged .489 versus fastballs this season, yet owns severe run values versus the changeup and curveball. That profile makes for an encouraging matchup in at-bats versus Assad.
Cubs vs. Rockies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Assad is slightly overvalued at this point, and he will likely start to regress more moving forward. Coors Field could be a bad fit for his style, as we should see a fair number of balls in play going into some widened gaps. Colorado has an implied team total of just under 5.5 runs at most books, and betting them to get over that mark is a solid play if you can get -115 or better.
Montero has quietly been one of the best bats in the Rockies' dreadful lineup of late and matches up reasonably well here. Before betting, we want to confirm he gets put in the starting lineup with Bryant back in the mix , but his price of +160 to record over 1.5 total bases (bet365) holds value.
