Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds (Game 2 American League Wild Card)
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 +100o / -120u | +130 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 +100o / -120u | -155 |
Blue Jays vs. Twins odds opened with Minnesota as a -146 favorite for Game 2. The Twins snapped their long postseason losing streak with a victory in Game 1 and will look to advance to the ALDS with another win over Toronto on Wednesday.
Sonny Gray, who had a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings during the regular season, gets the ball for Minnesota. He'll be matched by former Twin Jose Berrios, who rebounded from a terrible 2022 season to post solid numbers in 189 2/3 innings for Toronto.
Let's preview Game 2 of this AL Wild Card Round series and come up with a Blue Jays vs. Twins pick and prediction.
Toronto Blue Jays
Berrios really overperformed his expected metrics all season long. He had 3.65 ERA, but his expected ERA was almost a full run higher at 4.51. The reason that he overperformed is because his main two pitches, a sinker and a slurve, have gotten hit pretty hard. But he's been a bit fortunate with them being hit right at people or his defenders making above-average plays in the field.
Berrios had not been pitching well for a majority of the season, but in the month of September he has turned it up to a new level, lowering his xFIP to 2.8, when it was sitting around 4.2 for June, July,and August.
He's improved because he's getting a lot more swings and misses, increasing his K/9 rate to 10.8. While that is all well and good, Berrios does have a pretty big problem: he struggled against lefties.
He's been great versus righties, allowing a .269 wOBA, but against lefties he's allowing a .322 wOBA. Minnesota has the ability to platoon five lefties against Berrios, so he may struggle versus his former team.
The Blue Jays' offense was actually quite cold coming into the playoffs. Over the last 30 days of the regular season, Toronto only had a .316 wOBA, which was 19th in baseball. The Blue Jays are a very patient lineup, having one of the lowest strikeout rates and highest walk rates in baseball, but will be facing a pitcher with excellent control of his arsenal.
The Blue Jays are going to see a lot of different pitches from Gray, who has a six-pitch arsenal and doesn't throw one pitch more than 30% of the time. Toronto has been one of the best fastball-hitting teams in baseball for a long time now, but has struggled specifically against sliders and cutters, which just so happen to be Gray's two best pitches.
Minnesota Twins
Gray has really found his form toward the end of the season. He finished with a 2.79 ERA and while he did over-perform his expected metrics, in August and September he had a 3.3 xFIP because he lowered his BB/9 rate substantially.
In about 67 innings over the past two months he's walked just 11 total batters. His Location+ over that time span is sitting at 108, which is one of the best marks in baseball.
The reason Gray is so good is because he has six different pitches that he can throw at any point in the count. His Stuff+ has been fantastic overall and it's pretty clear that his sweeper and cutter are by far his best two pitches, as both have a rating over 115.
Sonny Gray, Vicious 84mph Sweeper. 😤
4th K pic.twitter.com/xN6nY6Y4hO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2023
Gray's sweeper has been legitimately unhittable this season, allowing a .097 batting average and producing a 41.3% whiff rate.
The Twins got a big boost right before the playoff with Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis returning to the lineup. Lewis mashed a first inning home run in his return to give the Twins the lead and take some of the pressure off of Pablo Lopez.
The Twins absolutely mash right-handed pitching, finishing top five in wOBA, and they were top three in that category in the last 30 days of the regular season.
Blue Jays vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Twins finally got the monkey off their back in getting their first playoff win in 18 years and again have a really good pitching matchup with Gray on the mound. Berrios has drastically overperformed his expected metrics and struggles against lefties, which the Twins can put five in the lineup against him to give them their best chance at success.
Both bullpens were heavily utilized on Tuesday, but since Monday was a day off, everyone will be available, which favors the Twins, who had the third-best bullpen xFIP over the second half of the season.
I have Minnesota projected at -148, so I like the value on the Twins at -130 (bet365) and would play it up to -135.
Pick: Twins ML (-130) | Bet to -135
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