MLB Best Bets Today, Sunday, October 8
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:03 p.m. | |
| 8:03 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Astros
By D.J. James
Framber Valdez is one of the best starting pitchers on the Houston Astros, but the Minnesota Twins have hammered left-handed pitching in the second half of the season.
Since August 1, the Twins have a 135 wRC+ and .853 OPS off of lefties. They have a 9.6% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate, too. They have six batters above a .330 xwOBA and three others at .300+.
Valdez has been good. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his Barrel Rate is 8%. His Average Exit Velocity is 91.5 mph, and his Hard-Hit Rate is 45.6%. He has a 55.2% groundball rate and 7.1% walk rate with a 24.8% strikeout rate.
He is not a better pitcher than Pablo López, who has a 3.66 ERA this season with a 3.00 xERA and 87.1 mph Average Exit Velocity. His Barrel Rate is 6.3% against a 34.8% Hard Hit Rate. His strikeout rate is 29.2% against a 6% walk rate. His groundball rate was 45.4%.
The Astros also have a 4.30 xFIP with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate since August 1 in relief. Minnesota has a 4.12 xFIP with aa 26.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate in that timeframe.
The Twins have an edge in most of this game and hold value on the moneyline. Take them to +110.
Pick: Twins ML (+125)
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Twins vs. Astros
Pablo Lopez has been awesome for the Twins this season. He posted one of the best expected ERA's of the regular season at 2.98, which is the best mark of his career. The reason why he’s gotten that so low is because he is getting more swings and misses than he ever has with an 10.86 K/9 rate.
His sweeper and curveball have been really good producing a whiff rate over 36%, but his fastball and changeup also have a whiff rate over 28%, so it should be no surprise that he’s in the 95th percentile among starting pitchers in chase rate.
Lopez has been on point with his control, too, putting up a 107 Location+ rating and his Pitching+ rating of 109 is third best in MLB behind only Zack Wheeler and Spencer Strider.
Lopez also has fantastic splits against righties, only allowing a .260 wOBA, which will work out well against the Astros who only will be able to platoon a maximum of four lefties into their lineup.
Framber Valdez didn't put up a great xERA at 4.30, but his xFIP was almost a full run lower at 3.39. The reason his xERA was so high is because he does allow a lot hard contact, ranking in the third percentile for average exit velocity allowed a sixth percentile for hard hit rate allowed.
The good news for Valdez is the Twins are significantly worse against lefties than they are against righties. Minnesota only has a .315 wOBA against lefties, which is 19th in baseball.
I only have 7.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8 runs at -106
Pick: Under (-108)
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