The Texas Rangers play host to the Houston Astros on Thursday night at Globe Life Field, leading 2-1 in the series, but having dropped Game 3 at home, they are at risk of handing home field advantage back to Houston if they drop another in Arlington.
The starting matchup pits Andrew Heaney against Jose Urquidy, but as we have seen throughout this postseason, teams are not shy about treating these starters as glorified openers, and that logic is something bettors should take advantage of.
Here are a few props to look for in the betting market that align with this thought.
Astros vs. Rangers Game 4 Props
Andrew Heaney Under 11.5 Outs Recorded
+115 at BetMGM
In Heaney's first start this postseason, the 6-foot-2 lefty threw just 56 pitches and went just 3 2/3 innings against the Orioles, and that was despite allowing only three baserunners and one run in that outing.
Now, he draws an even tougher lineup vs lefties (122 wRC+ compared to 112 for Baltimore) with metric tons more postseason experience, and a lineup that suits him going one-plus time through the lineup really well.
This is a bet several Action folks are on, and it makes sense that he could potentially get through the lineup once, stick around until Yordan Alvarez, but bounce right before having to face Jose Abreu a second time.
If the Rangers were indeed to use Heaney in this manner, he'd have to set down all 12 batters in order to get this over, at which point he'd likely stay in and this would clear handily, regardless.
Heaney ended the regular season being used often out of the bullpen, and he hasn't made it through the fifth inning since the end of August, so all signs point to an under here.
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Chas McCormick Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
+100 at DraftKings
One player I like to disavow Heaney of said 12 up, 12 down is Chas McCormick. He's not the most well-known player on the Astros by a long shot, but he's their best hitter by wRC+, against lefties this season (177) and his nine home runs against southpaws were second on the Astros this season.
He's in a great spot in the lineup for RBIs (behind Kyle Tucker, who was second in wRC+ vs lefties on the team, and Abreu, who has been demolishing them all postseason), and although he may only get one look at Heaney, a good chunk of the Rangers bullpen is also left-handed.
McCormick may well get one more PA against a southpaw later in the game (although Bruce Bochy will do his best to avoid it).
Speaking of that likely one PA against Heaney, I like targeting that PA for a live bet as well, since it combines the McCormick vs LHP and Heaney not long for the game edges. There aren't any markets pre-game for McCormick's first PA, but it's one I would be looking to bet live.
And if you're looking for a fun longshot, McCormick to hit the first home run of the game at +1100 isn't a massive EV+ bet, but it's a fun one that at least isn't crazy EV-.
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