Astros vs. Rangers Game 5 Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 9 -110o / -110u | -106 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Astros vs Rangers odds for Game 5 have Texas as a short favorite over Houston in a series that is now tied, 2-2.
The total for the game has been set at 9 with -102 juice on the over and -120 juice on the under. On the spread, Astros -1.5 is +155, while Rangers +1.5 is -188.
The Astros have come roaring back to tie the series up, and folks, we finally have some drama in these MLB playoffs as we head to a pivotal Game 5.
Houston's bats have awakened, plating 18 runs over the past two games to give its starters some much-needed cushion. The Astros will send their ace, Justin Verlander, to the mound again, hoping for a better result than the loss in Game 1.
Texas got exposed for its one true weakness in this series: starting pitching depth. Having to trot out Max Scherzer coming off an injury, followed by Andrew Heaney, is not the most ideal scenario for Bruce Bochy.
However, the Rangers get to hand the ball back to Jordan Montgomery, who completely shut down the Astros' lineup in Game 1 of the series.
Here is my Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 5 pick and preview.
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Houston Astros
Verlander really didn't pitch that poorly in Game 1. He gave up two runs on six hits, but of the 51 pitches that the Rangers swung at, only four were graded as a hard hit by Baseball Savant.
Verlander utilized his fastball pretty heavily in the game, going to it a little less than 50% of the time, and he was averaging just over 94 mph, all consistent with his averages for the season.
Verlander has not pitched great overall since coming back to the Astros, but he's really improved toward the end of the regular season and in the postseason. Over his last four starts, he's allowed only three earned runs on 15 hits in 25 2/3 innings, so there is really no need to panic or downgrade him due to the Game 1 performance.
One thing about Verlander is he is an elite pitcher against left-handed hitters. This season, he allowed a .247 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which is big against a Rangers lineup that will likely have at least five left-handed bats in their lineup on Friday.
Verlander's stuff has remained consistent and above league average, garnering a Stuff+ rating of 106, but maybe even more importantly, over the final month of the season his Location+ was 105, showing that he's really starting to get control of his pitches.
The Astros, despite what you saw in Game 1, have a good matchup against Montgomery. Houston was third in baseball during the regular season with a .346 wOBA against left-handed pitching, while also having the lowest strikeout rate.
Montgomery's pitch mix of sinker, changeup, and curveball are all pitches that the Astros hit well during the regular season, as they had a +12.2 run value combined against the left-handed version of those three pitches. However, the one other time they faced Montgomery earlier in the season they did struggle.
With the Astros jumping out to an early lead Thursday, they were able to preserve the top three arms in their bullpen (Ryan Pressley, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu) that had all been used the day before. They utilized a lot of the back end of their bullpen, which is big, because now everyone is available for Game 5.
Texas Rangers
Montgomery was masterful in Game 1 of the series, holding one of the best lineups in baseball scoreless over 6 1/3 innings. What he did a fantastic job of is mixing his pitches.
During the regular season, Montgomery threw his sinker 42% of the time, while throwing his curveball and changeup pretty evenly — both around 22% of the time. However, in Game 1 he heavily utilized his curveball.
There is a reason for that. The Astros this season only had a +1.9 run value against curveballs, which was their lowest value against any pitch type. Montgomery knew that and decided to throw his curveball as much as possible. It's a good one, too, having a Stuff+ rating of 121. He can do the same thing to the Astros in Game 5.
Jordan Montgomery, Dirty 81mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/i4D5fC6TtR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 16, 2023
The moral of the story is this when you face the Rangers' lineup, it really doesn't matter what you throw them, they're most likely going to hit it. The Rangers were third in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching and had positive run values against every single pitch type, so you have to be on point with your command to quiet their lineup.
With the Astros jumping out to an early lead, every arm in the back end of the Rangers bullpen was used, but Bochy saved his top three arms — Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc — to be fresh and ready for Game 5.
Astros vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
One big thing going into this game is whether or not the Rangers decide to keep the roof open. They opened it for Game 4, which Dusty Baker was not too thrilled about. It's a pretty massive difference in terms of a run-scoring environment if they decide to keep it open.
The reason they opened the roof on Wednesday was because it was 76 degrees in Arlington, Tex. With it being 90 degrees in on Friday afternoon, I highly doubt they are going to keep the roof open.
With that in mind, it's going to create a lower run-scoring environment for each team's best pitchers. Montgomery can keep this Astros' lineup at bay if he continues to utilize his curveball, and given the form Verlander is in right now, he can shut down this Rangers lineup. Both bullpens having been able to save all of their high-leverage arms for this game tonight is also key.
The total for Game 1 closed at Under 8.5. There is an Under 9 available right now at FanDuel that I would grab, because I am projecting only 8.2 runs for this game and I don't see a reason why this total should be above or exactly the same as Game 1 given the success these two starting pitchers had.
