Twins vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2023

Twins at Reds

4:35 pm • MLB Network

Minnesota Twins

0-0

5 - 3

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
H.Greene			4.82	4-7
B.Ober			3.43	8-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 0-0	+1.5-192	o8.5-120	+114
Reds 0-0	-1.5+160	u8.5-105	-135

Wednesday 4:35 p.m.

September 20, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

B.Ober o14.5 Outs-168

0.6u

CIN -125

1.88u

CIN -1.5+161

0.5u

CIN -1.5+160

0.75u

Godamnit Biev

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Sep 20, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

Elly De La Cruz has struck out in 34% of PA's this season -- 10th highest among hitters with at least 225 total PA's-- second Percentile. Jhoan Duran has a strikeout rate of 33% this season -- tied for 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Carlos Correa is slugging just .259 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. 99% of Hunter Greene fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (166/477) of left-handed batters he faced since last season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (84 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .584 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 19th	MIN	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9.5	MIN +105
Sep 18th	MIN	W 7-3	+1.5 W	O 9.5	CIN +130
Sep 17th	@NYM	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 9	NYM +115
Sep 16th	@NYM	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN -104
Sep 15th	@NYM	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	CIN -105

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Anthony DeSclafani
P
DeSclafani is out with arm
Out
Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Austin Wynns
C
Wynns is out with shoulder
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Nick Martini
OF
Martini is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Ober, P	97	5	3	2
RJ.Winder, P	29	2	2	1
RJ.Duran, P	21	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, DH	1-4	0	0	1
1M.Wallner, PR	0-0	0	0	0
1M.Wallner, DH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, PH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, DH	0-0	0	0	0
2J.Polanco, 2B	1-5	0	0	2
3D.Solano, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4M.Kepler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5W.Castro, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
6K.Farmer, SS	1-4	1	0	1
7A. Stevenson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
7A. Stevenson, CF	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	2-3	2	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, LF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	92	7	14	1
RI.Gibaut, P	16	1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	15	0.1	0	3
LS.Moll, P	14	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
2T.Friedl, CF	1-5	0	0	1
3S.Steer, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Fraley, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Encarnacion-Strand, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
5N.Senzel, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6J. Votto, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6S.Fairchild, LF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Marte, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8W.Benson, RF	1-3	2	0	0
9L.Maile, C	1-3	0	0	1
9N.Martini, PH	0-0	0	0	0