Pirates vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - September 8, 2023

Pirates at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSE

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

2 - 8

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Elder			3.81	12-4
M.Keller			4.21	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	+1.5-111	o9.5-105	+169
Braves 0-2	-1.5-108	u9.5-115	-207

Friday 11:20 p.m.

September 08, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

Over 9.5-105

M.Keller o5.5 Hits Allowed-115

Keller is over this line in 6/9 since the ASB, incl 9 H allowed vs the Braves a month ago. He’s allowed 91 hits in 87.2 away innings this season - and PIT seems inclined to allow him to eat innings. And unsurprisingly, ATL is top 3 in wRC versus each of Keller’s 4 main pitches (his three fastball variations and the sweeper).

Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 3.3 runs per game while leading since last season -- second-highest in MLB (237 games). The Pirates have allowed 3.1 runs per game while trailing since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB (236 games).

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Featured Insight
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .676 since last season -- third-worst in MLB. BravesRPs have allowed an OPS of just .647 (4,362 PAs) since last season -- third-best in MLB.

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4 Best Bets from Friday's MLB Slate
Action Network Staff•
Sep 8, 2023 UTC

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The Pirates are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

Bryan Reynolds is batting .303 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for seventh best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Bryce Elder has thrown his slider 36% of the time this season -- tied for 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 55 total SL-- 90th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (228/555) when behind in the count this season -- highest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% -- 100th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (19 Total Bases / 89 ABs) on fastballs away this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 7th	STL	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 10	ATL -345
Sep 6th	STL	L 6-11	-1.5 L	O 9.5	STL -350
Sep 5th	STL	L 6-10	-1.5 L	O 10.5	STL -220
Sep 3rd	@LAD	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 9	LAD -106
Sep 3rd	@LAD	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 10	ATL -120

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Marco Gonzales
P
Gonzales is out with arm
Out
Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	95	5	4	8
LJ.Hernandez, P	28	2	4	0
RH.Stratton, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Bae, CF	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4J.Suwinski, LF	1-4	1	1	2
5E.Rodriguez, C	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Palacios, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7L.Peguero, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Rivas, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
9A.Williams, SS	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Elder, P	95	7	9	2
LD.Lee, P	13	1	0	0
RB.Heller, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	3-4	2	1	2
2O.Albies, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
3M.Olson, 1B	2-3	2	0	0
4M.Ozuna, DH	1-5	1	0	0
5E.Rosario, LF	2-4	2	1	3
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	0	2
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	3-4	1	0	1
9N.Lopez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0