Chelsea (7-3-3) and Leeds United (3-8-2) will face off today at 3:15 p.m. EST.
Chelsea is favored at a -130 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-125o / -102u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Leeds prediction.
Chelsea vs. Leeds Prediction
Pick: Chelsea Moneyline
My Chelsea vs. Leeds best bet is the Chelsea Moneyline.
Chelsea vs. Leeds Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -140 | 2.5 -125o / -102u | -130 |
| Leeds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 -125o / -102u | +330 |
Chelsea vs. Leeds Picks, Parlay
Pick: Chelsea to Win
Enzo Maresca’s team will be tested in a challenging fixture against Leeds at Elland Road. However, the latest odds imply the Blues should pass this with flying colors, as Chelsea is priced as a heavy favorite, implying around a 57% chance of winning.
The Blues walk into this midweek fixture with great form. Chelsea is unbeaten in the last seven games across all competitions. Meanwhile, in stark contrast, Leeds has suffered four consecutive defeats and has conceded 11 goals in the process.
The Whites’ already shaky defense will face one of the best offensive teams in the league. The visitors average 1.8 goals per game and boast an impressive 23.3 xG (expected goals) tally, second only to Manchester City in the Premier League rankings.
One positive for Leeds is their offensive efficiency when playing at home. The Whites have failed to score in just one of their last five home games, but have won the xG battle in that match as well.
Despite often scoring, the team's defensive frailties result in losses. Both teams have scored in seven out of 13 Leeds’ games, and the Whites lost four of those.
According to BETSiE, our internal prediction model, the visitors have around a 58% chance of winning.
BETSiE’s estimate only confirms what the odds are implying, making a Chelsea win the value bet on Wednesday.
Chelsea vs. Leeds Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 57.9% | 21.3% | 20.8% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | 2.76 | 0.95 |
Chelsea vs. Leeds Betting Analysis
Leeds has lost its last four matches, but in its most recent games it has held its own against two of the Premier League's top teams.
Narrow defeats to Aston Villa and Manchester City could be seen as encouraging for Daniel Farke's team, although it still finds itself in the relegation zone.
Chelsea, on the other hand, managed to hold Arsenal to a 1-1 draw, even while playing with 10 men for nearly an hour. Sunday’s result saw the Blues being overtaken in second place by Manchester City, but confirmed their progress under Enzo Maresca.
The hosts are well aware that their hopes of survival depend significantly on their performances at Elland Road. Meanwhile, Chelsea, who is unbeaten in seven matches, enters the first of three consecutive away games as favorites.
According to the latest Leeds vs Chelsea odds, the visitors have about a 58% chance of claiming all three points.
The Leeds vs Chelsea odds favor the away team. According to the bookmakers, Chelsea has a 58% chance of recording an away victory, whilst Leeds has only a 23% chance of winning.
An Asian handicap of -0.75 has been applied to Chelsea. This Asian handicap line will pay out only half the profits if Chelsea wins by a one-goal margin. The only way pro-Chelsea bettors will yield full winnings on the -0.75 Asian handicap selection is if Chelsea records a win by a two-goal margin or more.
The Asian goal line is set at over/under 2.5 goals in the Leeds vs Chelsea odds. Notably, Leeds United managed to venture over the 2.5-goal line on its own in the most recent meeting at Elland Road. Jesse Marsch’s Leeds won 3-0 the last time Chelsea visited in 2022, recording 2.22 xG compared to Chelsea’s 0.88 xG.
Four Chelsea players, Cole Palmer, Liam Delap, Marc Guiu, and Joao Pedro, are all priced shorter to score in the anytime goalscorer market than all Leeds players.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the hosts’ most favored scorer, according to the bookmakers. The former Everton striker scored at the Etihad to kickstart a Leeds revival against Manchester City last weekend.
