College Football Odds, Pick for Ohio State vs Michigan | Big Ten Betting Guide
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Ohio State vs. Michigan is one of the best rivalries in college football. Let's take a look at the college football odds for Buckeyes vs. Wolverines and find a pick for "The Game."
Has there ever been a more dramatic lead-in to "The Game?"
Both Michigan and Ohio State were ranked in the top three last season, only to see the Wolverines plow through an aggressive Cover 0 Buckeye defense in a dominant win.
The rankings are identical to last season, but this season has the added drama of Michigan's sign-stealing scandal.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh won't be on the sidelines for this game, removing a petition to the NCAA after further evidence was revealed in the Connor Stalions investigation. Position coaches have been dismissed, and boosters have been identified in a multi-year operation that filmed the sidelines of nearly 30 schools.
Stalions contends this was done solo, but plenty of evidence suggests Michigan has been the benefactor of sign stealing since 2021.
The Game will be full of intrigue, where watching the sidelines becomes as entertaining as the game itself.
A down in the life of Connor Stalions, lone wolf junior recruiting analyst. From the 2022 MSU-UM game. H/T Eleven Warriors and Red Cedar Message Board. pic.twitter.com/dRMr3To2FT
— Andy H (@a_zinger) November 20, 2023
Plenty of detractors don't believe Ohio State can win the national title.
Quarterback Kyle McCord has a 16:12 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play rate, a ratio far from his touchdown-to-interception numbers.
McCord has struggled to produce consistent success and explosives against Quarters and Cover 1. Still, he's been comfortable against Cover 3, leading Ohio State to a 59% Pass Success Rate with many explosives against the look. 
McCord has an elite weapon in Heisman contender Marvin Harrison Jr., who's considered one of the best route runners in college football. The soon-to-be first-round NFL Draft pick averages an electric 3.4 yards per route run, recording 13 touchdowns on 62 catches this season.
Will defensive coordinator Jim Knowles learn a valuable lesson after last year's defeat in this game?
Michigan recognized Cover 0 on several offensive attempts in that one, which led J.J. McCarthy to throw over the top of the Buckeyes' defense. Knowles has called Cover 0 on only 21 opponent passing attempts this season, electing to show Cover 1 and 3 against most offenses.
Ohio State has the top overall national rank in Pass Success Rate Allowed and ranks third in on-target rate allowed.
The 4-2-5 personnel has been equally as effective against the rush, dominating opposing offenses looking to run inside zone.
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Has the scandal changed Michigan's play-calling on both sides of the ball?
There has been a change in McCarthy's production, as he's just a few weeks removed from topping the odds board for the Heisman Trophy. The Wolverines are in the top 10 in Pass Success Rate but relied heavily on running back Blake Corum in November.
Blake Corum is just a problem out there 😤@UMichFootballpic.twitter.com/zQS3jsasd6
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 18, 2023
Michigan has a contrasting rush-offense dynamic, ranking 114th in Rush Explosiveness and 31st in Rush Success Rate.
Corum has run like a man possessed on inside zone and man concepts, logging nearly 30% of his attempts on the season in the past two games.
However, it's worth mentioning the senior does not have an elusiveness factor, as Big Blue ranks 106th in broken tackles created.
The Wolverines defense ranks best nationally in several categories, although Maryland challenged the top ranking in Finishing Drives. The Terrapins had several offensive drives across the Michigan 40-yard line and produced a whopping 5.3 points per trip.
Michigan ranks in the top five nationally in Pro Football Focus's coverage grades but was still lit up by Maryland's passing attack for six explosives.
Special teams and field position played a part in Michigan beating the Terps. Still, there's a reason to believe defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have the toughest test of the season with his nickel personnel against Ohio State.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Michigan match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 1 |
Michigan Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 2 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 1 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 3 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 7 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (82) | 31.3 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 51.7% (76) | 61.4% (11) |
Ohio State vs Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
Handicapping Michigan's offense starts with Corum.
McCarthy hasn't flashed any success or explosiveness in the passing game, and I expect that to carry over in Week 13.
Corum runs in a split of inside zone and man-blocking concepts. Unfortunately for Michigan, Ohio State has stifled opposing inside-zone concepts, allowing nearly zero explosive runs in those sets this year.
If Michigan is going to have luck with Corum running the ball, it will be straight man run concepts against Ohio State's front seven.
As mentioned, I don't expect Michigan to produce explosives in the passing game, and part of that is because Ohio State leads the nation in Expected Passing Points Allowed.
The bigger question in this handicap is how Michigan covers Harrison.
Ohio State's route tree mainly consists of hitches, outs and crossers. While the Wolverines are good against crossers, hitches are the most explosive routes for the Buckeyes, and the Wolverines have allowed plenty of explosive passes against those routes this year.
McCord has dominated Cover 3 — the primary coverage package for Michigan.
Considering Harrison has posted chunk yards on hitch routes, Ohio State's aerial attack has a significant advantage. The Wolverines have fallen to 69th in Standard Downs Explosiveness Allowed, so I expect the McCord-to-Harrison combo to dominate.
Our Action Network projections make Michigan a four-point favorite, but my research shows Ohio State can win outright.
McCarthy has struggled to throw the ball over the past two weeks as Michigan relies more on Corum and the ground game. Ohio State's defense will be locked in on Michigan's running backs in inside zone looks.
If the Wolverines don't move the chains on the ground, they'll have no luck generating explosives, especially considering they rank 66th nationally in Passing Expected Points.
Harrison is the X-factor in this one. McCord has sliced up Cover 3 looks, and Michigan should be playing plenty of Cover 3 on Saturday.
Additionally, the Wolverine secondary hasn't stopped hitch routes from turning into explosives, providing the Buckeyes' passing game with a monster advantage.
Pick: Ohio State +3 or Better
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