Michigan vs Minnesota Odds, Prediction & Picks | Week 6 Betting Guide
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh leads his team onto the field against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 30, 2023.
Michigan vs Minnesota Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +800 |
Michigan looks to stay undefeated when they travel to Minneapolis to battle Minnesota.
Michigan has been steamrolling everyone this season. The Wolverines have outscored their opponents 172-30, and not one opponent has scored more than seven points.
After Georgia's less-than-stellar performance against Auburn, you can argue that the Wolverines deserve to be the top-ranked team in the country.
Another dominant win could make that happen, especially if Georgia drops one to Kentucky this weekend.
Minnesota got their season back on track last weekend, beating Louisiana 35-24. The Gophers are 3-2 with a blowout loss to North Carolina and an overtime collapse against Northwestern.
Minnesota doesn't have the talent to compete with Michigan here. This one could get ugly.
The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense.
The Wolverines run the ball on 61% of their offensive plays and are playing at the second-slowest pace in the country, only behind Air Force, running a play every 31.9 seconds.
They're 22nd in Rush Success Rate but 122nd in Rush Explosiveness, so it's a lot of three-or-four-yard runs over and over again.
When he's called upon to throw, JJ McCarthy is one of the country's most efficient passers. He's averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and owns a 90.6 PFF passing grade with an 81% adjusted completion percentage.
The key to limiting McCarthy is forcing him to take check-downs and short passes because he will destroy defenses if he's allowed to throw over the top.
Michigan's defense is among the nation's best, especially against the run. The Wolverines are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry, ranking inside the top five in both Rush Success Rate Allowed and EPA per Rush Allowed.
So, it's a good matchup for them facing a team that runs the ball almost 63% of the time.
Even if Minnesota decides to throw the ball with their below-average quarterback, Michigan also ranks top-30 nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and PFF Coverage grade.
Michigan hasn't allowed more than seven points to anyone yet this year, so it's no surprise that the Wolverines are number one in the country in Defensive Finishing Drives and quality drives allowed.
Minnesota's offense has been terrible, failing to run or pass the ball efficiently. The Gophers are averaging only 5.1 yards per play and rank 96th in EPA per Play.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has struggled, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt with a 62.2 PFF passing grade.
He can't throw the ball downfield. He's attempted 44 passes over 10 yards and has completed only 20 without a single Big Time throw.
That's a problem because Minnesota isn't built to play from behind. The Gophers run the ball on 61.5% of their offensive plays and try to make Kaliakmanis' life easy with easy, high-quality throws.
Unsurprisingly, Kalikmanis had his worst game of the season when they traveled to North Carolina and fell behind. He went 11-of-29 for 133 yards and a 41.6 PFF passing grade in the loss.
And Minnesota boasts just an average rushing offense, ranking 69th in EPA per Rush.
Unfortunately, star running back Darius Taylor, who's averaging 6.1 yards per carry while leading the Big Ten with 532 yards rushing, missed last game with a leg injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.
The Gophers defense has been well below average this season.
They're allowing 5.7 yards per play and are outside the top 70 in EPA per Play allowed. They have been a decent coverage unit at times, but they have struggled to stop the run, so Michigan should be running the ball at will on their front seven.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Minnesota match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 79 |
Minnesota Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 1 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 70 |
| PFF Coverage | 18 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 8 | 35 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 32.3 (132) | 29.9 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 61.6% (11) | 62.7% (13) |
Michigan vs Minnesota
Betting Pick & Prediction
The pace of play here should be very slow.
These two offenses rank among the bottom 20 college football teams in pace, and both call rush over 60% of the time.
Michigan's defense has been excellent, and this is a great matchup against a rush-heavy, slow-paced offense led by a below-average quarterback. Considering how bad Kaliakmanis is when he's forced to throw, I'm unsure how Minnesota moves the ball.
Considering the slow pace and Minnesota's lackluster offense, I like the Under 46 at BetMGM.
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