College Football Best Bets: 3 Picks for Saturday’s Noon Slate
Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Indiana’s Andison Coby.
It’s another beautiful fall Saturday filled with college football.
You can’t bet all day if you don’t start in the morning, so our staff has identified three best bets for the Noon slate this Saturday, Oct. 14.
We hope you like gross underdogs because we love three, including picks on Indiana against Michigan, Syracuse against Florida State and Purdue against Ohio State.
Read on for a full breakdown of all three bets.
Saturday's Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | ||
| 12 p.m. | ||
| 12 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Indiana vs. Michigan
By Stuckey
This looks like a prime opportunity to buy the Hoosiers, who have two weeks to prepare after a bye week.
The offense could also have added juice (which wouldn't take much) after Indiana fired offensive coordinator Walt Bell following its most recent loss prior to the bye.
I was never a fan of Bell, so this can only lead to better results, especially since I expect some new wrinkles and looks with the added benefit of the element of surprise in Rod Carey's first game calling plays for quarterback Tayven Jackson, who will reportedly remain the starter for now.
The Hoosiers also recently brought in former Virginia Tech head man Justin Fuente as an offensive analyst to assist the offensive staff.
The Indiana defense did at least have respectable efforts against Ohio State and Louisville, holding each to under 24 points.
However, this is more about fading Michigan at such a high number, which is extremely difficult for the slow-paced Wolverines to cover with the new clock rules.
Look no further than earlier this season when Jim Harbaugh's bunch went 0-3 against the spread during the nonconference slate as favorites of 36, 38 and 40. In those three contests, they never even scored enough points to cover with outputs of 30, 35 and 31 against the subpar defenses of UNLV, Bowling Green and East Carolina.
I know the Wolverines, who continue to grow on me with each passing week, have scored plenty in the past two weeks. But it still remains very difficult to cover a spread this large with how slow their offense operates against an Indiana defense that will look to limit explosive plays.
It will only take a key turnover or failed long drive with the amount of possessions I project even if the new Indiana offense doesn't have any life with the staff changes and big-play wide receiver Cam Camper likely returning from injury.
Lastly, I could also see Michigan potentially coming out a bit flat for a noon kick against lowly Indiana, which should at least come out with some extra enthusiasm off of a bye following an embarrassing loss to Maryland.
That might be all it takes to stay within this number.
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Syracuse vs. Florida State
Last week, we faded the Seminoles with a nice Virginia Tech +24 bet. It looked rough to start, but we ended up with the win.
We’re heading back to the well this week, this time with the Syracuse Orange. We have this game projected at +12, and I am happy to back a team I feel is underrated against a team I feel is overrated.
This is a strength-on-strength matchup when Florida State has the ball and Syracuse is on defense. When Syracuse has the ball and Florida State is on defense, this is a weakness-on-weakness matchup.
These teams are pretty evenly matched across the board. Florida State’s offense has been great this year, ranking in the top 20 in Havoc Allowed, Explosiveness and Points per Opportunity.
The problem? Syracuse ranks in the top 25 in Havoc generated and Points per Opportunity Allowed. It's also contained teams well on defense too, ranking 32nd in Explosiveness allowed.
As mentioned, Syracuse is average on offense, ranking in the fifties in Success Rate, explosiveness and Points per Opportunity. Meanwhile, the Seminoles rank 45th in Success Rate allowed, 49th in Points per Opportunity allowed and 88th in Explosiveness allowed.
Look for Syracuse to get some stops, play slow and keep the ball on the ground. I like the Orange to keep it close here.
Ohio State vs. Purdue
I don’t think Ohio State is any good.
I’m disinterested in Kyle McCord. He’s thrown only one interception but accounted for six turnover-worthy plays, so some turnover regression is coming. His 72.1% adjusted completion rate ranks 72nd among 156 qualified FBS quarterbacks (min. 60 pass attempts).
The offensive line play is an issue. McCord can’t get comfortable in the pocket, and he’s been abysmal under pressure (36.0 PFF passing grade, 1.8 yards per attempt on 39 dropbacks). The unit isn’t getting a big push up front, with the Buckeyes ranking 101st in Rush Success Rate.
Ohio State is supposed to be this elite offense. Instead, the Buckeyes have a middling quarterback and a mediocre rush game behind an inconsistent offensive line.
It’s hard to cover a three-score spread with that offense.
I was very unimpressed with Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame. The Irish finished that game with a 96% post-game win expectancy, producing a 47% Success Rate (77th percentile) while holding the Buckeyes to a 33% Success Rate (33rd percentile).
If it weren’t for a late-game dropped interception, the Irish win by seven while holding the Buckeyes to 200 passing yards.
The Buckeyes were lucky, making them overvalued. It’s a good time to sell high on Ryan Day’s squad.
Meanwhile, I think the Boilermakers are due for some extra good fortune.
They’re top-50 nationally in Success Rate and Success Rate Allowed, but they’re also sub-100 in Offensive Finishing Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives.
I’d generally expect crunch time performance to regress toward rest-of-field performance, so I expect Purdue to score more points and allow fewer in the coming weeks.
They may have lost by six to Iowa last week, but they outgained the Hawkeyes by 50 yards and generated nine more first downs. Purdue posted a 46% Success Rate (74th percentile) while holding Iowa to a 27% mark (fourth percentile).
I think that loss was unlucky, making Purdue undervalued. It’s a good time to buy low on Ryan Walters, Hudson Card and the Spoilermakers, who have won five of their past eight home meetings against the dominant Buckeyes.
I can’t see Ohio State running away with this one, and the spread seems way overinflated based on flukey results for both squads.
Our Action Analytics team projects this spread closer to Ohio State -15, so my gut feeling checks out.
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