College Football Odds, Picks: Friday Night Best Bets for Wisconsin vs. Purdue, Boise State vs. San Diego State
Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: The Boise State Broncos.
- This Friday's college football slate is the best Friday night schedule since Week 1.
- Our staff came through with four best bets for Wisconsin vs. Purdue, Boise State vs. San Diego State and more.
- Check out all four of our Friday night college football best bets below.
Fridays are for college (and high school) football.
With four games on the docket, tonight marks our best Friday night college football slate since Week 1. And of course, our NCAAF staff came through with a best bet for every single game.
So, whether you're looking to bet a Power 5 battle earlier in the night (Wisconsin vs. Purdue and NC State vs. Virginia) or burning the midnight oil with some late-night Mountain West After Dark (Boise State vs. San Diego State and Air Force vs. San Jose State), we have you covered.
So, read on for our four best bets for Friday night's college football games. And be sure to check back tomorrow, because we'll have plenty more coverage for Week 4's Saturday college football slate. This is just the beginning.
Friday College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Wisconsin's offense is starting to become really effective, changing systems from a ground-and-pound rushing attack to Phil Longo's high-tempo offense.
The Badgers used to run over 60% of the time, but now they're basically at a 50-50 split between the run and the pass, which has made them less predictable and has made their rushing attack incredibly effective.
Behind the two-headed monster of Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi, the Badgers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry while ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate, 17th in Offensive Line Yards and fifth in Stuff Rate Allowed.
With that effective rushing attack, Wisconsin ranks 14th in Finishing Drives through three games and averages 6.2 yards per play.
Purdue head coach Ryan Walters led one of the best defenses in the country last season at Illinois, which got him the job with the Boilermakers. But through three games, they have some work to do on defense.
The Boilers had a lot of transfers come in and have a lot of inexperience all over the field, which has led to their allowing 5.4 yards per play and ranking 89th in EPA/Play.
New offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has been pretty balanced through Purdue's first three games, which may end up being a benefit in the long run. But so far, the only word to describe the Purdue offense would be "inept."
The Boilermakers have played a more difficult schedule than most, and they're currently 73rd in Success Rate, 87th in EPA/Play and 101st in Finishing Drives.
The problem really has been that they can't run the ball. Despite having starting running back Devin Mockobee back from last year, he's averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Purdue, meanwhile, ranks outside the top 100 in both EPA/Rush and Offensive Line Yards.
Purdue quarterback Hudson Card has been OK as a passer, owning a 71.0 PFF passing grade and averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. But if we go back to last season with Texas, he started three games when Quinn Ewers was hurt, and he didn't play well.
In those three games, he failed to record a PFF passing grade over 70 and didn't have a single big-time throw. He also fumbled the ball four times in the last game against Syracuse.
The Badgers defense has been pretty average through three games, allowing 4.8 yards per play while ranking 48th in EPA/Play Allowed. They returned eight starters from a defense that was top-20 in EPA/Play Allowed last season, so they should improve as the season goes along.
I have Wisconsin projected at -10.1, so I like the value on the Badgers at -5.5, and I would play them up to -6.5.
NC State vs. Virginia
By Cody Goggin
Despite its loss to Notre Dame, NC State still looks to be improved from a season ago.
This Wolfpack team ranks 46th in SP+, with the No. 63 offense and No. 33 defense. Where they've been the best is on the ground, where they run the ball 52% of the time and rank 15th in Rushing Success Rate and 28th in Overall Success Rate.
That's good news for NC State in facing a Virginia defense that has struggled mightily this season. The Cavaliers rank 131st in Success Rate and 129th in Finishing Drives. While both facets of their defense are bad, the rushing defense is particularly poor, ranking 129th in Success Rate and 127th in PPA.
All three opponents Virginia has faced — Maryland, James Madison and Tennessee — have put up a Success Rate that sits in at least the 73rd percentile and an EPA per Play that ranks in at least the 80th percentile.
This hasn’t been the easiest schedule to begin the year, but NC State is another matchup where Virginia’s defense will be outmatched.
The Hoos want to throw the ball, passing at the 55th-highest rate in the country. They're slightly better through the air, ranking 114th in Passing Success Rate compared to 132nd in Rushing Success Rate. One of NC State’s defensive strengths has been its ability to defend the pass — it ranks 53rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed — so Virginia will have issues there as well.
Backing a heavy road favorite in a conference game is risky, but I view NC State as the much better team in this matchup. With the spread currently under 10, I would take the Wolfpack to cover.
Boise State vs. San Diego State
By Mark Harris
Mountain West conference play begins in America’s Finest City when the San Diego State Aztecs host the Boise State Broncos.
Despite playing this game at home, SDSU finds itself as roughly a touchdown underdog to the Broncos. It’s a hefty spread for a road favorite that hasn’t looked that great, but it’s a reasonable line considering how the Aztecs have looked so far.
San Diego State was not particularly competitive in its losses to UCLA and Oregon State, and it probably doesn’t beat Ohio in Week 0 if Kurtis Rourke doesn’t get injured. The Aztecs are averaging just 18.8 points per game so far, and that includes a 36-28 win over Idaho State that was a little too close for comfort.
Even though everyone remembers Washington torching Boise State in Week 1, it looks like the Huskies are going to do that to most teams they play. The Broncos defense was far better in their next two games, so it should have success against a subpar SDSU offense.
Broncos quarterback Taylen Green adds another element to this game with his legs. Green’s rushing ability, plus Ashton Jeanty out of the backfield, gives Boise State an extra gear on offense that San Diego State doesn't have.
In a battle of two offensively challenged teams, go with the Broncos to cover since they have a few more playmakers than the Aztecs.
Air Force vs. San Jose State
This late-night matchup will feature two teams that reside on opposite poles when it comes to the run game.
Air Force, running a service academy standard issue triple option, comes into the game with the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation. The Falcons are averaging 320.67 yards per game and have scored 11 of their 12 touchdowns on the ground.
Coming into the season, there were questions about Air Force's ability to replace graduating talent from last season’s 10-win team, but it's hit the ground running — literally and figuratively.
The Air Force run game is led by the two-headed monster of quarterback Zac Larrier and running back Owen Burk. Larrier and Burk each average over five yards per carry and have scored five rushing touchdowns between them.
The triple option is a notorious pain in the neck to prepare for because the vast majority of programs see it at most once per year.
San Jose State looks to be at a massive disadvantage heading into this run-heavy affair as it enters the game with one of the worst run defenses in the nation.
Through three games this season, the Spartans rank 106th in the nation in rush defense, giving up an average of 170.0 yards per game. The story gets worse when we look to PFF, where San Jose State ranks 132nd in the nation in rush defense.
The Spartans' pass defense is definitely the strength of the unit, but that won’t come into play too frequently here.
The kicker here is that Air Force has a nice little passing offense, too, albeit in a small sample size. The Falcons rank seventh nationally in the pass game, per PFF, because of how efficient they are. The passes are few and far between, but when they do throw the ball, they've been averaging 19.3 yards per attempt.
My model is projecting Air Force as 7.5 favorites. I think this represents strong value relative to the current market of -6, and I would recommend laying the chalk in favor of the Falcons at -6.5 or better. Back Air Force to pick up the win and cover.
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