NC State vs Florida State Odds, Pick for Tuesday

The Florida State Seminoles have struggled when it comes to conference play, but the ACC is also having a down year. NC State is in a similar spot, but the Wolfpack have done a bit better on the offensive side of the ball. The Seminoles have really only thrived defensively, an issue they've had all season.

Even though both of these teams like to speed the pace up, neither is strong enough offensively to push this one over its total.

The Wolfpack are usually one of the best teams in the country when it comes to turnover differential. Meanwhile, Florida State has had its issues on the offensive end, but the Seminoles actually turn other teams over at a far higher rate than the Wolfpack do. With that being the case, turnovers could end up being a wash in this game.

NC State likes to default to post-ups on offense. The Wolfpack rank ninth in offensive post-up frequency, while the Seminoles rank 165th in points per possession allowed while defending the post-up. This is one area of concern for Florida State, since NC State will get the ball inside as often as possible. But the Seminoles have a couple key defenders in Baba Miller and Jamir Watkins who can swat the ball and defend the post. This should cut into what would otherwise be a massive edge to the Wolfpack.

NC State struggles on the glass both offensively and defensively. Mohamed Diarra may be the Wolfpack’s best rebounder, but he doesn't play the majority of their minutes. Florida State rebounds the ball poorly as well, so most of this game should be played in the half-court.

Florida State rarely takes 3-pointers. The Seminoles rank 307th in 3-point attempt rate on offense. But NC State ranks 261st in 3-point attempt rate, so neither team shoots much from outside. The Seminoles do rank in the top 15 in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, but they are still only hitting 31.8% of shots from deep.

The Seminoles are slightly better on the interior, shooting 51.4% from 2-point range on the season. The issue is NC State is much better defending inside, limiting opponents to 47.9%, per Shot Quality. The Wolfpack rank in the top 60 in points per possession at the rim defensively, while Florida State ranks 170th on offense.

Both Florida State and NC State take a lot of shots from the midrange. As many basketball fans know, those shots are not the most efficient. That said, as an Under backer, you should prefer those inefficient shots to shots from downtown.

Finally, Florida State does get to the free-throw line often. Both NC State and Florida State will foul opponents, but the Wolfpack not get to the line all too often either. As long as NC State limits fouling, it should help the Under in this game.

Neither team in this game is an offensive juggernaut. The Wolfpack are better on the offensive end, but both still like to get the ball inside for a bucket. As long as fouling and turnovers do not loom large, much of this game should be played in the half-court and thus played slowly.

Take the Under in this game and play that number to 149.

Pick: Under 150.5 (Play to 149)