Northwestern vs Maryland Odds, Pick for Wednesday

The Northwestern Wildcats enter the final four games of the Big Ten regular season in prime positioning for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.

Thet can improve their seeding with a road win over the Maryland Terrapins in College Park on Wednesday night.

Surprisingly, only one spot in KenPom’s rankings separates Northwestern (43) and Maryland (44.)

You can look at KenPom's "Luck" metric for a reason as to why Maryland's metrics don't match the win-loss record. The Terps have the fifth-worst luck in the sport, and the metric deems teams with a ton of tight games "unlucky."

Maryland is coming off a surprising 63-56 road win over Rutgers. It was the most 2024 Terps win ever, as they held the Scarlet Knights to 0.75 points per possession.

That’s how Maryland has won games this season, and holding teams to 46 points will create favorable results.

The Terps boast one of the top defenses in America, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency. Many of the great defensive teams either excel at forcing turnovers or limiting shot-making. Maryland is incredible at both, holding opponents to an effective field-goal percentage of 45.6% (10th nationally) and forcing turnovers on 19% of opponent possessions (66th).

However, Maryland is addicted to playing close games. The Terps' last four losses came by 16 total points.

Maryland doesn’t really get blown out, but its scoring problems get exposed late in games. Unless Jahmir Young creates a heroic shot, Maryland has trouble scoring in those spots.

Young is one of the top guards in America, posting 20.8 points and 4.1 assists per contest. He’s one of three Terps averaging double-digit points, along with Julian Reese and Donta Scott.

Defenses know Maryland will either score on shots created for Young or shots created by Young.

In fact, Young and Scott are the only rotation players shooting above 30% from downtown, and three of Maryland's five starters shoot below 17% from 3. That allows defenses to sell out on drives, knowing Maryland either won’t shoot 3s or will miss them.

It’s a very predictable offense, which is why the Terps rank 166th in offensive efficiency.

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Northwestern is the polar opposite of Maryland.

The Wildcats boast one of the best offensive units in the Big Ten, clocking in at 29th in offensive efficiency. Northwestern is great at limiting turnovers (13% TO rate) and shooting 39% from 3, where it ranks fifth nationally.

Boo Buie is the star of the show. He became the top scorer in Northwestern history last week and averages 18.9 points and 5.2 assists while shooting 41% from 3.

Meanwhile, losing Ty Berry to a season-ending meniscus tear thrust Ryan Langborg and Brooks Barnhizer into bigger scoring roles.

So far, both have made seamless adjustments and have shot and scored the ball more. Langborg scored 20-plus points in back-to-back games and has shot over 41% from deep on the season.

My one concern about Northwestern is defense. The Wildcats defense can't contain perimeter shooters, allowing 36% on 3-point attempts. That probably won't sting Northwestern against the poor-shooting Terps, but the Cats still allowed over 1.05 PPP to Michigan and Indiana.

I like how Maryland is playing of late, and the Terps have the home-court advantage here.

All six of the Wildcats' losses in Big Ten play have come in road games, and we should see something similar take place in College Park on Wednesday.

Pick: Maryland -3.5 (Play to -4)