Guardians vs Braves Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (April 27)
Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Morton.
Guardians vs Braves Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (April 27)
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 8.5 (-122 / +100) | -1.5 -134 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-178 | 8.5 (-122 / +100) | +1.5 +112 |
The Braves stretched their winning streak to four with a 6-2 win in Friday's series opener and now own a 2.5-game lead over Philadelphia in the race for the NL East. Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the mound on Saturday with a 4.70 ERA in the early going of his 17th MLB season.
Starting for Cleveland is 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award runner-up Tanner Bibee. He has pitched to a 4.44 ERA over 24 1/3 innings this season.
Bibee looked to be somewhat of a regression candidate this season after he outperformed his 3.69 xERA by a significant margin last season. So far in 2024, his form has dropped off to an extent with a 5.52 xERA and 4.30 xFIP. His Stuff+ rating has actually improved though so far, coming in at 102 entering this matchup, and his Location+ of 99 is on par with last season.
Whether Bibee is able to trend toward last year's results or not, it is clear he is being backed by a much improved Guardians offense.
The Guardians have hit to a sixth-best wRC+ of 111 and rank seventh with 5.32 runs scored per game. They have hit right-handed pitching in particular effectively, with a 10th-ranked wRC+ of 103.
Cleveland owns the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league to righties at 19.3%, and its 22.5% whiff rate is the fifth lowest in baseball. Also, its out-of-zone swing-and-miss percentage is the lowest in MLB at 37.5%.
The Guardians also are +2.2 in weighted curveball runs above average, which is relevant in any matchup involving Morton.
Josh Naylor is batting .306 on breaking pitches this season, which is the fifth-best mark in the league. He also owns an average exit velocity of 92.3 against right-handed pitchers, which is the 11th-best mark among hitters with over 25 plate appearances. He's slugging .579 on breaking pitches against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
After impressing by posting a 3.64 ERA at age 39 last season, Morton is off to a steady start in 2024. He owns a 3.34 xERA and 3.97 xFIP.
Morton's Stuff+ is down to 91 compared to last year's mark of 106, though, and his Location+ mark has also trended down to 97. Lesser stuff has likely contributed to the fact that Morton's strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rates are all down compared to his 2023 marks.
Two of his four starts have also come against the 29th- and 30th-ranked offenses in the league against right-handed pitching, which likely has helped his expected run values.
Morton continues to walk lots of batters, as he ranks in the 11th percentile in 2024. He's walked 93 of 811 batters since last season.
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Guardians vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Guardians have once again among baseball's scrappiest offensive sides. When true to form, they wear down opposing pitchers with elite plate discipline and feature a number of tough outs. They have hit right-handed pitching in particular effectively thus far, and do not strike out often to righties.
Morton has had a reasonable start to the year, but his stuff is still rating worse than last season, and he's had a soft schedule. He's only gone over 4.5 strikeouts against the Marlins and White Sox thus far. There is value in betting on him to stay under 4.5 today in a far tougher matchup at -142 (FanDuel).
This is also a great matchup for Naylor to hit for power, and I think we will see him snap his slump in this matchup. At +125, there is value in betting Naylor to record over 1.5 total bases.
Pick: Charlie Morton Under 4.5 Strikeouts -142 (FanDuel, Play to -150), Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 (FanDuel)
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