Action Network’s International Soccer Power Rankings: England Takes Top Spot, USA 27th

Action Network’s International Soccer Power Rankings: England Takes Top Spot, USA 27th article feature image
Credit:

Marvin Ibo Guengoer/Getty. Pictured: Germany players.

After loads of qualifying matches there has been a lot of changes to The Action Network International Soccer Power Rankings. 

I've updated the rankings heading into this international break with England taking over the No. 1 spot. Germany is second, followed by Spain, France, and Brazil to round out the top five on the global scene.

Because CONCACF has such a low coefficient post-World Cup, the United States of America is 27th.

That said, let's take a look at the latest rankings.

RankCountry
1England
2Germany
3Spain
4France
5Brazil
6Argentina
7Portugal
8Italy
9Netherlands
10Belgium
11Nigeria
12Croatia
13Norway
14Uruguay
15Switzerland
16Austria
17Colombia
18Morocco
19Denmark
20Ecuador
21Czech Republic
22Sweden
23Serbia
24Scotland
25Poland
26Ukraine
27USA
28Mexico
29Turkey
30Chile
31Slovakia
32Greece
33Wales
34Ireland
35Venezuela
36Senegal
37Hungary
38Albania
39Canada
40Romania
41Paraguay
42South Korea
43Bosnia-Herzegovina
44North Macedonia
45Japan
46Ivory Coast
47Peru
48Slovenia
49Georgia
50Russia
RankCountry
51Montenegro
52Bolivia
53Kosovo
54Israel
55Mali
56Finland
57Iceland
58Algeria
59Moldova
60Northern Ireland
61Ghana
62Luxembourg
63Armenia
64Estonia
65Cyprus
66Cameroon
67Iran
68Kazakhstan
69Bulgaria
70New Zealand
71Faroe Islands
72Azerbaijan
73Malta
74Belarus
75Egypt
76Congo DR
77Latvia
78Lithuania
79Tunisia
80Burkina Faso
81Haiti
82Panama
83Andorra
84Honduras
85Australia
86Jordan
87Togo
88Suriname
89Jamaica
90Curacao
91Palestine
92Guinea
93Saudi Arabia
94Iraq
95Kenya
96Kuwait
97Oman
98Dominican Republic
99Qatar
100Guatemala
101Angola
102Thailand
103Cape Verde Islands
104Turkmenistan
105Costa Rica
106Uzbekistan
107Burundi
108Benin
109Gabon
110South Africa
111Philippines
112Guinea-Bissau
113UAE
114Equatorial Guinea
115Lebanon
116Congo
117Nicaragua
118El Salvador
119South Sudan
120Swaziland
121Uganda
122Namibia
123Gambia
124China
125Tanzania
126Sierra Leone
127Fiji
128Cuba
129Syria
130Mauritania
131San Marino
132Rwanda
133Zambia
134Papua New Guinea
135Mozambique
136Libya
137Tahiti
138Liberia
139Vietnam
140Niger
141Cook Islands
142Solomon Islands
143Ethiopia
144Gibraltar
145Central Africa Republic
146Vanuatu
147New Caledonia
148Samoa
149Trinidad and Tobago
150American Samoa
151Tonga
152Bahrain
153Tajikistan
154Malawi
155Malaysia
156Macau
157Zimbabwe
158Indonesia
159Sudan
160Botswana
161Kyrgyzstan
162Madagascar
163Comoros
164Lesotho
165Barbados
166Singapore
167Hong Kong
168India
169Yemen
170Montserrat
171Grenada
172Djibouti
173Cambodia
174Sri Lanka
175Afghanistan
176North Korea
177São Tomé and P.
178Liechtenstein
179Somalia
180Chad
181Eritrea
182Seychelles
183Pakistan
184Myanmar
185Puerto Rico
186Mongolia
187St. Kitts and Nevis
188Nepal
189Dominica
190Brunei
191Laos
192Bhutan
193Timor-Leste
194Guam
195Bangladesh
196Saint Lucia
197Maldives
198Taiwan
199Anguilla
200Belize
201Guyana
202Bahamas
203St. Vincent
204Antigua and Barbuda
205British Virgin Islands
206Aruba
207Turks and Caicos
208Bermuda
209US Virgin Islands
210Cayman Islands

Goal of These Rankings

The reason I decided to take on this project was because I saw a lot of weaknesses in the FIFA rankings and the organization's path to properly determining who's the best team in the world. FIFA's rankings are "results based", which I think is a major flaw given what we know about the long run statistical regression of expected goals.

For example, an uber talented team that puts up incredible underlying numbers, like Germany, crashes out in the group stage of the World Cup after getting caught on the wrong side of variance in two matches and because of that will drop significantly in the FIFA Rankings. That's not indicative indicative of trying to project who the best teams in the world are, in my opinion.

So, I decided to try and combat that by creating my own power rankings, to determine who's the world's best team based on a couple different factors that have nothing to do with what FIFA uses to create its rankings.

Four Factors Determining Rankings

1)Expected Goals Results

I am a big believer that expected goals is a better indicator of a nation's performance rather than just what the final score winds up being.


Expected Goals or (xG) measure the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken. xG is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.


I have gone through and logged every country's xG results, but only from competitive competitions, meaning no results from friendlies or Nations League competitions were included.

Note: All xG results are from matches in the competitions listed below that have occurred from January 1st 2021 until today. 

Here are the following competitions that are included for each confederation:

UEFA (Europe) 

    • European Championship Qualifiers
    • European Championships
    • World Cup Qualifiers

CONMEBOL (South America)

    • Copa America
    • World Cup Qualifiers

CONCACAF (North America)

    • Gold Cup
    • World Cup Qualifiers
    • Copa America

CAF (Africa)

    • Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers
    • World Cup Qualifiers
    • Africa Cup of Nations

AFC (Asia)

    • World Cup Qualifiers
    • Asian Cup

OFC (Ocenia)

    • World Cup Qualifiers

World Cup

2)Transfer Value Adjustment

I use Michael Caley’s method of using a team's overall transfer value to account for the talent level of each country.

Using Transfermarkt data and running a few different calculations, these are the top 25 countries based on total transfer-market value, along with the amount added or subtracted (if the countries total transfer value is below the world average) to their xG differential to help determine the overall rating.

*(data via transfermarkt.com)

3) FIFA Coefficients

Similar to the idea of UEFA Coefficients, which help determine how many teams each country can get into the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, I wanted to put a coefficient on each continent.

UEFA Coefficients are determined by how well the club teams from each country do in European competitions.

So, I applied that same method to FIFA Coefficients by going back through the last five World Cup competitions and gave out point values (based on the criteria below), along with a weight for the average transfer value by continent to get to a value that can be added to each country's rating based on what continent it resides in.

FIFA Coefficient Points: 

  1. Two points: For all wins in the group stage & knockout stage
  2. One point: For all draws in the group stage
  3. Two points: Bonus for finishing second in the group
  4. Four points: Bonus for winning the group
  5. One point: Bonus for each round reach from the Round 16 onward

After some calculations, here are the following "FIFA Coefficients" that are added to each country's xG differential plus transfer value adjustment:

As you can see, Europe and South America are weighted far greater than the rest of the world, which makes sense considering no team outside of Europe or South America has made the semifinal round in the last four tournaments.

4) Strength of Schedule 

Strength of Schedule needs to be taken into account when determining rankings like this:

Worldwide

Even though FIFA coefficients can give us a good weight for each continent's true level of play, another strength of schedule at the world level is necessary to properly rate each country.

So, there's a "final ranking before strength of schedule adjustment," which is the Final rating after taking into account xGDiff plus transfer value adjustment plus a strength of schedule adjustment.

The strength of schedule adjustment is done by taking the average worldwide strength of schedule divided by the average rank of opponents faced minus 100 percent.


After all of that, we reach the final rating for each country, which is:

Final Rating = xGDiff per match + transfer value adjustment + FIFA coefficient + strength of schedule adjustment.

TAN World Soccer Ranking

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.