Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Newcastle United EPL Betting Preview (Jan. 22)

Leeds vs. Newcastle Odds

Newcastle United travels to Elland Road on Saturday for a Premier League match against Leeds United with potential relegation implications.

The Peacocks are starting to find their form and getting healthy after a rough stretch in November and December. They earned a 3-2 road win at West Ham United last weekend and now get a favorable home matchup, where they've played much better as they attempt to officially exit the relegation battle.

The Magpies conceded a late equalizer last Saturday to Watford, which meant that they were staying just outside of the relegation zone. With the new Saudi-backed ownership in charge, a lot of new players will be arriving in this month's transfer market. However, as it stands today, this is still one of the three worst teams in the English top flight.

Bamford Could Give Leeds Huge Boost

The Peacocks are still without Kalvin Phillips, Liam Cooper and Tyler Roberts, but could get Patrick Bamford back in the lineup, which would be massive, considering he’s only made six appearances this season and had a 0.54 xG per 90-minute scoring rate last year in the Premier League. 

Leeds’ offense has come alive the past few matches, creating 1.6 expected goals against Burnley and 2.3 xG against West Ham, so going up against a Newcastle defense that is bottom three in every single defensive metric, including 1.79 xGA per match, per fbref.com.

Leeds has been much better at Elland Road than they've been on the road this season, as they only have a -1.4 xGDiff and average 1.50 xG per match versus a -8.3 xGDiff away from home.

Newcastle Trying to Make Personnel Additions

Newcastle is busy in the transfer market right now. They've already brought in Kieran Trippier and Chris Wood, who did start in their match against Watford. However, this is still one of the league's worst defenses that has conceded 36 big scoring chances, which is the most in the league.

If you’re going to beat Leeds, you have to be able to play through its pressure, which Newcastle is not capable of doing, considering they’re dead last in Offensive PPDA, per understat.com.

On the flip side, Leeds really struggles against teams that press them back and that's far from the style Newcastle tries to play. The Magpies are 19th in PPDA and 16th pressures per 90 minutes. So, this is not the best of matchups for Newcastle, who is trying to get out of the relegation fight. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I have Leeds projected at -117, so if Bamford is back in the lineup, I like the home side to grab all three points at +100 odds or better via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Leeds ML (+100)