Premier League Odds, Picks & Prediction: AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa Betting Preview (Saturday, Aug. 6)

Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa Odds

In the club’s return to the Premier League, AFC Bournemouth opens the season on home soil Saturday when it hosts Aston Villa.

The Cherries secured automatic promotion to the English top flight with a second-place finish in the Championship last campaign.

Meanwhile, the Villans made great strides under manager Steven Gerrard and bolstered their squad with quality signings this summer.

That said, this sets up to be a cagey match between sides in the bottom half of the table, which is why I’m not expecting this one to be a high-scoring affair.

AFC Bournemouth

Bournemouth returns to the EPL after just two seasons in the lower division, with this also being the second club that manager Scott Parker has earned promotion with in his career.

Parker will be hoping for a longer stay than when he came up with Fulham, which ended with instant relegation back down to the Championship.

The club will rely heavily on striker Dominic Solanke to get the goals to keep the Cherries up this campaign.

By The Numbers

• 29 — Solanke’s goal tally from last season was only beaten by Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrović (43) in the Championship.
• 1.95 — Under Parker in the 2020-21 campaign, the Cottagers' home matches averaged the lowest combined goals in the league.

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Aston Villa

There is no question Villa improved once Gerrard became manager, so the club will be hoping that continues in the new season.

The Villans have also been busy this summer, bringing in defenders Diego Carlos and Ludwig Augustinsson from Sevilla and holding midfielder Boubacar Kamara from Ligue 1 side Marseille.

Gerrard also added veteran goalkeeper Robin Olsen from Serie A powerhouse Roma, so we should see a stronger defense in the 2022-23 season.

By The Numbers

• 2.12 — In 13 away games under Gerrard, the Villans' matches finished with this combined expected goals average below 2.5 goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
• 1.51 — Aston Villa went from allowing this average number of xG per match to 1.20 with Gerrard at the helm.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This game features one side with a conservative manager and another that has significantly bolstered its defense in the transfer window. So, I'm backing the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -130 odds over at BetMGM as my top pick.

Parker is going to look to hit teams on the counterattack this season with a defense that allowed the fewest goals in the Championship last campaign. However, his managing style doesn’t typically lead to great offensive numbers.

Once you add in the fact Solanke has never had productive seasons in the EPL, I think this game has all of the makings of being a low-scoring fixture.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)