Thursday Europa League Final Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Rangers Betting Preview

Frankfurt vs. Rangers Odds

The Europa League final features surprise packages, with Scottish side Rangers taking on German club Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday in Seville. On the line are a major European trophy and place in the Champions League next season.

Rangers pulled off a stunning comeback victory on aggregate via its 3-1 victory against RB Leipzig at home in the second leg in early May. The club overcame a 1-0 defeat in Germany the week prior to qualify for the final.

Frankfurt knocked off English side West Ham  United, but prior to that took out the tournament favorite Barcelona with a historic 3-2 victory at the Camp Nou. Simply put, it has been a wild knockout stage rife with upsets.

Frankfurt is lined as the +135 moneyline favorite via the latest BetMGM odds, but there's not much between the sides given their strengths cancel each other out tactically. However, Frankfurt has had major defensive issues of late.

Decent Draw Benefitted Eintracht Frankfurt 

Frankfurt's run through the Europa League has been impressive, in part because of how mediocre its performances were in the league. It doesn't make a ton of sense, especially given how poorly the Bundesliga performed in Europe otherwise, that Frankfurt was able to make this deep of a run.

However, the club did have a pretty good draw, getting two overrated sides in the market in Real Betis and West Ham. Both were overvalued in the market because they had run extremely well on finishing variance to get to that point.

However, the win against Barcelona is noteworthy because the Spanish power was playing its best soccer of the season headed into that match. Still, Frankfurt's metrics in Germany are indeed subpar.

Manager Oliver Glasner's side was 15th in big scoring chances conceded in the Bundesliga and ninth overall in non-penalty expected goals allowed per match. The side is prone to defensive miscues and because of its usual pressing intensity — third in the Bundesliga — Frankfurt can get exposed when teams break the lines of pressure and are able to get in behind.

The club showed even in the win against Barcelona that it's not particularly comfortable defending in a low block with a lead. The large majority of the Frankfurt attack comes from up the wings, especially through star winger Filip Kostić. His battle with James Tavernier out on the wing — another player who likes to get forward — will go a long way toward deciding this match.

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Rangers Looking for Another Bundesliga Victim

In its path to the final, Rangers have already taken on two German sides in Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. I think that gives them an advantage, because they'll be used to the high press, the space in behind and the lack of controlled possession that those German sides all bring.

Leipzig was the most possession dominant of those three games and Rangers did an excellent job of disrupting its passing patterns to prevent clear goal scoring opportunities. Rangers deserved to go through on aggregate when you look at the xG , and Frankfurt is clearly worse than both those teams.

The German style can be difficult to adjust to as well, but Rangers are more than capable of exploiting the space in between the Frankfurt wingers that love to push up to create overloads for crossing.

Frankfurt doesn't create a lot of big scoring chances and relies on overall shot volume to produce chances. However, the Scottish side's defense has excelled at preventing big scoring chances most of the competition.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

According to the latest FiveThirtyEight power rating, this matchup features the 53rd and 62nd best teams in the world. That ranking actually makes Rangers the marginally better team and favored to win this final. The betting market disagrees, but the advantage comes since it played better German teams.

The schedules haven't been exactly the same either, but the Scottish club has a better xG difference per 90 minutes in the competition and came through a much tougher group.

This matchup is most interesting because it largely depends on who has the ball. Rangers found an excellent balance against Dortmund and Leipzig by sitting off them, pressuring in a man-marking type system in its own half and then breaking forward with numbers on the counterattack.

This tactic worked brilliantly for Rangers once Leipzig and Dortmund committed numbers forward and Rangers found space in behind up the flanks.

If you watch Frankfurt's worst defensive games in the Bundesliga, they weren't against Bayern Munich, but against ex-manager Jesse Marsch and Leipzig, Dortmund and Greuther Fürth.

Dortmund scored eight goals on them in two games, largely exploiting space in the channels behind the fullbacks. And overall skill levels of these clubs point to this being a true toss-up.

For that reason, I'll take Rangers to lift the trophy at +110 or better.

Pick: Rangers to Lift Trophy (+120 | Play to +110)